If you don't have the summer holidays closed, waiting until the last minute is not the best option. The advice is repeated every year, but this 2023, with a runaway demand to leave the pandemic era behind once and for all, becomes more relevant. The possibility that there are fewer offers and the price increase forces us to put our batteries to enjoy the most sought-after destinations without the budget suffering.
The airlines have put 3% more seats on the table for the summer compared to 2019, a year that was already a record for traffic in Spain, says Javier Gándara, president of the Airlines Association (ALA). Cruise ships are also seeing early bookings come back with a bang. “There is a tremendous desire to travel for vacations that have not been done these years. The demand is going to condition the prices, which are not going to be cheaper”, assesses José Luis Méndez, president of the Union of Travel Agencies (UNAV).
The desire will collide with a situation of inflation. In hotels, the price increase is around 4%-5% in general terms, explains Méndez. In the case of flights, the trend is somewhat less clear, because the companies operate with a dynamic pricing system that shows differences between passenger and passenger, routes and days. More true is that fuel remains at high levels, at 700 dollars a ton of kerosene, less than the 1,000 it reached after the outbreak of the war but exceeding 500 pre-war dollars, says Gándara. Thus, the tickets will notice more increases in the long distance, says Teresa Aritzi, marketing director of the tour operator Soltour Travel Partners. This has led to the blossoming of new sun and beach destinations closer to home like Albania or Cape Verde, she points out. The summer favorites continue to be in any case the Caribbean, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.
It will not be a year of great offers and promotions. “They are usually oriented to stimulate demand. But now that people want to travel, they don't need to”, explains Gándara. Savings are reduced to moving forward and having flexibility. "In advance and in destinations with less demand, more competitive prices can be given," she says. “We are not seeing a price war and it does not seem that there will be one,” warns Juan Pedro González, client director at Kantar. He points out that baby boomers are the ones that increase their intention to travel the most, both because of their greater purchasing power and because of their delayed trips.
Given this scenario, “I wouldn't wait until the last minute. I would be planning now. The Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands and the Caribbean will be complicated ”, warns Aritzi. The ideal is to hire about 60 days in advance, which puts us already at the beginning of July. "The closer the departure is, the high demand and the multitariff system of the companies leads to more increases," they argue at UNAV. The lesson is being learned: according to Kantar, in 2022, 44% waited until the last month to book and the forecast is now five points lower.
Another point is to rule out the high season. In Soltour they comment that by opting for months with less demand, such as June or September, you can save about 300 euros on packages to the Caribbean and between 100 and 150 euros in other destinations. They show average cuts of 20%-25%. But it is an option that is not available to everyone, since flexibility is needed at work and with the children. And it is not strictly adhered to either. In Egypt, for example, the season is extended due to the greater demand – at full capacity with British and German tourism – and there are not so many differences between August and September. "In certain destinations with higher demand, it will be difficult to find offers," says Méndez. Another option is to opt for a similar destination, with less occupancy and where specific promotions can be given to fill. It would be the case of Tunisia, Morocco or Portugal, he comments.
If there is no choice but to overpay, there are options to adjust spending. How to cut days Inflation causes average spending to rise, but for trips it goes from 8-10 nights to 6-8. That is, the same expense for fewer days, says Méndez. In Kantar they have also detected a reduction in spending on leisure, excursions and gastronomy and fewer trips to destination as recipes among those who notice inflation more.
