The interest on the ten-year Spanish bond has exceeded the 4% level this Thursday for the first time in a decade, reaching 4.05%, after several months with returns close to 3.5%.
This level is reached in a scenario of interest rate increases in the euro zone, already at 4.5%, and messages from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve about the foreseeable maintenance of current levels. for a long time.
The ten-year Spanish bond began 2023 at levels of 3.53% and, since then, had been oscillating until reaching the level of 3.7% a couple of months ago. However, the latest messages from central banks have been consolidating the progressive escalation of interest on sovereign debts.
The 4% level is exceeded despite the fact that the Spanish risk premium with respect to the German bond remains around 111 basis points. It started the year at 95 points and has been oscillating between that differential and 110 points. Today it is even lower than that of Italy, 200 points, and the United Kingdom, 165 points.
The profitability of the Spanish bond has followed a sequence similar to that of interest rate increases. In September of last year it reached 2%, encouraged by the first rate increases in several decades, and soon after consolidated above 3%.
Its cost is, however, now lower than that of ten-year US bonds, at 4.65%. The German ten-year bond is trading today at 2.95% and the British bond is trading at 4.58%.
The Public Treasury plans to hold two new bond auctions in October, on October 5 and 19. This year, the financing needs caused by the public deficit are being combined with a sharp increase in the cost of debt.
For 2023 as a whole, the Government's forecast is to issue net debt worth 70,000 million, a figure similar to that of the previous year. They add up to gross financing needs of 256,846 million, compared to 232,570 million in 2022.
