The road is bumpy, but it is electrifying.
Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to rise 35% this year, after breaking a record in 2022. Electrifying vehicles will avoid the need for 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030. They are the data that emerge from the latest report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Global EV.
In 2022, more than 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide, with sales this year expected to reach 14 million units.
Following this explosive growth, the share of electric cars in the global automotive market has risen from around 4% in 2020 to 14% in 2022 and is expected to continue rising to 18% this year, according to the IEA.
"Electric vehicles are one of the driving forces in the rapidly emerging new global energy economy, bringing about a sea change in the global energy economy and bringing about a historic transformation of the global automotive industry around the world." , recognized Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA.
We are therefore before the first step of a change in the production model whose consequences are yet to be defined. "The internal combustion engine has been unrivaled for over a century, but electric vehicles are changing the status quo. By 2030, they will avert the need for at least 5 million barrels of oil per day. Cars are just the first wave : electric buses and trucks will follow soon," added Birol.
The vast majority of electric car sales to date are mainly concentrated in three markets: China, Europe and the United States. In particular, Beijing leads the way, with 60% of global sales of electric cars in 2022.
Currently, more than half of the electric cars on the roads around the world are in China. Europe and the United States, second and third markets in importance. Europe in 2022 recorded growth of 15% and the US, 55%.
However, manufacturing remains highly concentrated, with China dominating the trade in batteries and components, and increasing its market share. Last year Beijing increased its global export share of electric cars to more than 35%. This dependence has already been discussed, for example, in the EU, which aspires for 90% of the annual demand for batteries to be covered by national manufacturers and is finalizing several directives on this new industrial policy.
This rise of the electric car in the world is taking place despite the fact that public aid is not as generous as it is thought. Global spending on electric cars exceeded $425 billion in 2022, up 50% from 2021. But only 10% of spending can be attributed to government support – all the rest was borne by consumers.
The study recognizes that for electric cars to take off, it is necessary to increase the offer so that there are more affordable vehicles. “Consumers can choose from more and more electric car options. electrical. The number of available car models reached 500 in 2022, more than double the number in 2018. However, there is a need for conventional manufacturers to offer affordable and competitive options to enable mass adoption of electric vehicles, as current supply remains significantly lower. fewer than the number of internal combustion engine options available on the market.”
The new report highlights that announced battery manufacturing projects would be more than enough to meet demand for electric vehicles through 2030 under the IEA's 2050 net-zero emissions scenario. So there is still some way to go, ideally with batteries. .
