The question was pertinent: what is the point of talking prematurely about 6G, when 5G is far from having fulfilled its promises? The answer: a de facto rule dictates that ten years must elapse between each generation of mobile communication networks and the next. It is much more than a change in numeral: it has happened before and is happening again with the current one, which is to be replaced in 2030. According to a report published by Ericsson, "great transformations in our societies will have been shaped over a decade by networks 5G and the lessons learned will be applied in the next wave. In the meantime, needs and services will emerge that would not be possible with the technologies we have today.”
Overcoming the technical limitations of 5G – of which users are unaware – will facilitate the extension of critical services for companies with a ubiquitous Internet of Things and will establish immersive communications that are received with skepticism today. Very low latency (response time) and the availability of new frequency bands will be essential ingredients.
Magnus Frodigh, Research Director of the Swedish company and co-author of the report, explains that each ten-year cycle is made up of periodic updates. Universities and industry take three and four years of discreet work to clear the path to 6G: "Each improvement is incorporated in due time, usually with intervals of eighteen months." The most recent of the updates, known as 5G SA (stand-alone) allows for the first time not to have to rely on 4G infrastructures; the next one on the way will be called 5G Advanced and that will bring the time for 6G closer.
“This is a continuous process – he says – in which each phase can be seen as a starting point or, sometimes, convey the false impression that innovation is slowing down… until the work of the researchers is revealed again. It is difficult to add functionality to an established standard, which will have to match the installed base in different parts of the world, as well as new requirements. Maturation cannot be so fast that it degrades the demand for devices and services”.
He insists: “We cannot go faster nor would we want to slow down the process to justify the large investments required to deploy a network while there is another with which users are satisfied. Right now, we are far from realizing the full potential that 5G offers, but believe me, we have very clear ideas about the development curve until the end of the decade.”
A circulating conjecture suggests that the geopolitical situation could complicate negotiations to reach a global standard (reference to China and its proven ability to influence standardization steps). “As far as Ericsson is concerned – the interviewee points out – we work with the hypothesis that the benefits of a standard must reach everyone equally. If, for some reason, the market were to fragment, it would be a bad budgetary foundation, but we don't see it dramatically: there are internet services that work in the West but not in China and vice versa. We have to trust that together we will be able to design a unified radio interface, an essential step to sustain an industrial ecosystem of devices”.
And the disputed radio spectrum? The 6G networks will need a new frequency assignment, which will begin to be discussed this year at the ITU conference in Dubai and should be approved in 2027, if the industry is to get to work on time.
