While it is obvious that the alleged senility of President Biden and the judicial upheavals of former President Trump are the dominant and everyday issues of the US presidential election this year, it is also clear that the big question ( issue ) basically it is migration policy. And this migration issue has a specific physical space, the more than 3,100 kilometers of the border that separates the United States from Mexico, from Monument 258 in the northwest of Tijuana to the mouth of the river called Grande in the north in the Gulf of Mexico - Americans, Bravo for the Mexicans.
Four American states share a border with Mexico, including the two most populous in the country, California, with Democratic hegemony, and Texas, with Republican hegemony. The other border states, Arizona and New Mexico, are politically competitive and will be hotly contested between now and the presidential election date (November 5).
In the 2016 campaign, candidate Trump promised to build a beautiful wall – the adjective is his – along the entire border, which would also be bordered by Mexico. Some section was made during his term, without, of course, not a single peso contributed by Mexico and with the funding dispensed in drips by the US Congress. However, what eight years ago was a manageable topic has today become a real drama. In the last two fiscal years (2022 and 2023) there have been two million arrests at the border and about 142,000 deportations in the last financial year. It is estimated that around 5,000 people cross the border irregularly every day and it does not seem that the Mexican Government, presided over by the populist politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is doing its part to contain this dramatic avalanche.
There have been several legislative initiatives to resolve or at least alleviate this situation, but the extreme political polarization has so far made any kind of compromise difficult. All that was needed was for the Republican majority in the House of Representatives to make the continuation of military aid to Ukraine dependent on a new framework in terms of migration policy. Obviously, ex-president Trump is not contributing to an eventual pact and has instructed Republican senators and congressmen not to give any water to any proposal on the matter coming from the White House. He does not want to give his presumptive electoral rival such a significant card on an issue in which the polls favor, even if only generically, the Republicans.
And to all this, what is the position of the Hispanic vote, or Latino, according to the American census denomination? Two obvious things can hardly be pointed out, firstly, that it is transcendental and, secondly, that it is not monolithic. The 18.4% represented by Hispanics nationally contrasts with percentages of nearly 40% in the aforementioned California and Texas, otherwise so politically diverse, but ranging in proportions from 25% to 45% in states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, all very competitive electorally. As has been demonstrated for some time in Florida, with its strong Venezuelan immigration, a strong inclination of the Hispanic vote towards the Democratic Party in all cases and situations should not be taken for granted, not by a long shot.
Ultimately, the southern border will be at the center of the presidential campaign and, if the situation continues to deteriorate, it is a card that will be used intensively by ex-president Trump.
