The scope of the expansive wave of Hamas's attack on Israel is, for the time being, "unpredictable", according to sources from the Department of National Security. But the possible consequences of the maximum tension in the Middle East have caused the alarms to go off in the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Defense and Interior, which have been acting in coordination for a week in the face of an "uncertain challenge".
Outside the Spanish borders, the priority is to protect Spaniards abroad, whether they are military personnel in Lebanon or civilians living in the Gaza Strip. In Spanish territory, it is necessary to strengthen prevention and police protection against possible terrorist attacks.
"For the interests of Spain, the situation is really complicated", according to military sources in Lebanon. There are about 600 Spanish blue helmets from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (FINUL), in the middle of the clashes that are taking place between Israel and Hizbullah. The head of the international mission is a Spaniard, General Aroldo Lázaro. "We hope you don't have to go to the shelters", presciently warned the head of Defence, Margarita Robles, when on Thursday, on the occasion of the Twelfth of October, she addressed the Spanish contingent in Lebanese territory.
At the moment, the detachment continues its tasks - on a peace mission - patrol. Precisely this week, the director of the Department of National Security, General Miguel Ángel Ballesteros, has warned of the situation in which the armored vehicles (BMR) that they use to patrol are found. "When they put an explosive [...] the BMR can't take it and there have been deaths [...] A more modern vehicle saves lives".
Aside from the tasks under the crossfire between Israel and Hizbullah, today no one is able to affirm that the Spanish mission will be maintained in the medium term. In fact, from the operations command, the same sources explain, there are already several plans on the table as "possible responses" to situations that could arise if the conflict continues to escalate. In other words, retreat or evacuation are not scenarios that can be ruled out.
After the evacuation this week of 429 people – 334 Spanish – on two military planes from Tel-Aviv airport, efforts are now focused on trying to get the Spaniards trapped there out of the Gaza Strip after the Israeli army has laid siege to the area. According to Ministry of Defense sources, the list of Spaniards in Gaza exceeds one hundred. This is a very volatile number, which may increase over the next few hours. Despite this, the repatriation mission, given the situation, "is now unfeasible", regrets from Defence. "At the moment it is not possible", they add from Foreign Affairs.
The highest representative of Spanish diplomacy, José Manuel Albares, is coordinating with his European counterparts the possible operation of a hundred Spaniards in Gaza, which would have the means of the Air Force at their disposal. The armed forces testify to experience in this type of evacuation under highly hostile environments, such as those in Afghanistan or Sudan.
One of these hundred citizens "affected" in Gaza is the Basque Iván Illarramendi, 46 years old, a native of Zarautz (Gipuzkoa), who lived in an Israeli agricultural cooperative located a few kilometers from the border with the strip. The discretion with which the Spanish Government is managing this matter is maximum, since the main hypothesis being worked on is that of the kidnapping by Hamas militiamen. It's the theory they also considered about the unknown whereabouts of young Maya Villalobo, who was eventually found dead.
In Spanish territory, the forces and security bodies of the State have received orders to strengthen security in the meeting spaces of the Jewish community, following the possibility that they may be the target of an attack, after one of the ideologues of Hamas called to the "global jihad". According to police sources, Interior has given orders to deploy static security – 24-hour surveillance – in Jewish institutions. This is confirmed by the federation of Jewish communities, from where they maintain a "fluid communication" with Interior and Exteriors, as events progress.
Outside the Jewish community, agents of the anti-terrorist fight advance that the possibility of a jihadist attack as encouraged by Hamas is "reduced". Although the nature of this type of attack, generally carried out by lone wolves that are very difficult to detect by police radars, means that all efforts are focused on prevention.
From the ministry headed by Fernando Grande-Marlaska, they admit that on the study table there is "at the moment" no raising the terrorist threat level, which has been in phase four - out of five - since 2015, when a threat assessment report advised the increase after the attacks in France, Tunisia, Kuwait and Somalia. Increasing it depends on Interior
