"The real campaign begins now." The sentence, exhaustive, was pronounced by the PNB candidate for lehendakari, Imanol Pradales, on Friday at an event in Álava and, although it has a good dose of motivational harangue aimed at militancy, it coincides with a vision shared by the majority of analysts The first half of the campaign has had a very low profile, the percentage of undecideds is high and the fight between the PNB and EH Bildu, marked by an unprecedented equality, will be decided in the coming days.
At this moment, the minute and result of the campaign is marked by the polls, which, in addition to guiding the vote - in some cases - are used to read trends. In this sense, the latest CIS survey has given reasons for optimism to Bildu and reasons to be moderately worried about the GNP.
The CIS estimates, for the first time, a Bildu victory in percentage of the vote which, if confirmed, would also surely imply a victory in seats. This survey, whose fieldwork was carried out between April 1 and 8 and with 4,000 interviews, also reflects a disturbing trend for the Jeltzales, since the same body had given a victory at PNB just nine days earlier.
On the other hand, taking into account the micro data, most indicators would justify the upward perspective of Bildu, according to the opinion of Ainara Villaño, political scientist from Silvan
Villaño appreciates a second issue in these microdata that would indicate that the campaign is going better for Bildu, at least for the moment: "One of the great victories of a campaign is getting the issues right and fixing them, it's a something any strategist knows. According to the CIS, Bildu exceeds PNB in this area; in other words, the population, especially young people, perceive that the party that talks about the issues that interest them is Bildu. The coalition is interested in talking about Osakidetza (Basque health system) and housing, because it opposes the Government. And he's getting it."
If the previous CIS survey was a relief for the GNP, the mood in the Jeltzal ranks is at this moment of some concern. And not just because of the survey. In Bildu, meanwhile, prudence prevails, an extreme zeal aimed at avoiding upsets in the last days of the campaign. Things are going well for them, and they don't want to take chances or overexpose their candidate.
At this point in the campaign, it is the PNB that has the most reason to take risks with a view to activating its electorate. And here the Jeltzales rely on the express campaign that started this weekend, over the celebrations in Bizkaia linked to Athletic's cup victory, the interruption of the campaign due to the death of Lehendakari Ardanza and, before that, the influence of the vacation period.
The percentage of undecideds remains higher than usual at this point in the campaign (according to the CIS, it is close to 20%, although in other polls it is higher) and almost 30% of the population say they are deciding your vote during the last week of the campaign or when you go to vote. The lack of electoral tension may have its days numbered.
In addition, the second ETB debate will take place on Tuesday, this time in Spanish, after Wednesday's interesting debate in ETB-1, in Basque. "It feels like people are starting to get active this weekend, thinking that next time it's time to vote. This can lead voters to follow more closely the proposals of the parties, the issues they bring up, something I find very interesting, or the debate itself, which can be decisive", adds Villaño. In other words, there is a party and practically everything is to be decided.
On the other hand, although the fight between the PNB and Bildu is very important, the victory in seats on election night - which could imply a historic symbolic triumph for the Abertzale coalition - on the night of the 21st will have to be looked at more beyond In these elections there are two more fundamental unknowns, even more important: who will govern and how they will govern (with a majority or not).
Here Pradales appears in a better position, considering that the PSE, which will hold the key to governance, has already clarified that it will not make Otxandiano lehendakari. The doubt, therefore, is rather in the how. An absolute majority of the PNB and the PSE would allow them to govern with ease, even if the Jeltzales took the setback that would mean that Bildu won seats. However, a minority government between Jeltzales and Socialists would mean great wear and tear for both, especially for the PNB, which would have to look to the PP to guarantee governability.
Another issue to be resolved on Sunday will be the result of the Socialists. Getting the 12 seats that some polls give them is not the same as staying in their current 10, or even losing one, something that could leave the PNB-PSE combination without a majority. In any case, its strategic third place is not in question.
Another unknown is the electoral result of the PP, which is debating between staying in its electoral ground, around six seats, or starting to take off. The growing bipartisan perspective of Basque politics does not favor it, as the anti-Bildu vote can be concentrated in the PNB.
Finally, we need to see how the Podemos-Sumar duel is decided, a fratricidal battle in which they fight against the real possibility of being left out of Parliament. These unknowns will be resolved in the course of this decisive week.
