Neo-fascism is growing in Germany under the umbrella of the AfD, now the second largest force in voting intentions. The polls give him 21%, only behind the CDU, with 26%.
Growth has been steady since May and has left the Social Democratic party, winner of the last election, and its government partners, the Greens and Liberals, far behind.
In this atmosphere of euphoria, the AfD held a congress in Magdeburg yesterday to approve the program for the European elections next spring. The radical right party considers that "the EU has completely failed" in all areas, especially in combating the climate crisis and immigration.
It does not ask for its dissolution, as it did in June and many of its leaders defend, but its refoundation. He wants it to be a "federation of European nations". National sovereignty must always be above the general interests of Europe. The main objective of the new EU should be to fight illegal immigration and acquire strategic autonomy to assume security without depending on the United States.
The AfD is growing driven by the uncertainty weighing on the economy. The IMF advanced a couple of weeks ago that it does not expect a recovery before 2024 or 2025.
Germany overcame a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, but doubts remain. It is not clear that the industry can recover from the blow of giving up Russian gas. The cost of energy has skyrocketed. The profits of the big companies have suffered.
BASF lost 130 million euros in Germany last year. This giant, born in 1865, mainstay of the German miracle, closed several factories in his country last year. About 2,600 people lost their jobs. Now it will invest 10,000 million euros in a new production plant in China.
The costs of energy, together with the shortage of qualified labor at a competitive price, favors deindustrialization. Miele manufactures in Poland; Porche in Slovakia, Audi and BMW in Hungary.
These and other industrial companies lose orders. It is bad news, especially since 27% of the German economy depends on manufacturing.
Unemployment is very low, but growing, while foreign investment is at levels of 2013. It has been falling non-stop for five years.
German industry is basically 19th century: chemistry, engineering, automotive and construction. There is no prospect of diversification in the short or medium term. Germany is very far, as is Europe, from the advances in artificial intelligence led by the United States and China.
The anxiety that this trend arouses in the most vulnerable sectors of the German economy encourages the AfD. The party reached 12.6% of the vote in the 2017 election and dropped to 10.3% in the 2021 election. In just two years it has doubled that percentage. There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine and the conflict with Russia, which involves giving up Russian gas, the cheap fuel on which much of the industry was based, are causes of the economic difficulties.
The ultra-nationalist ideology and anti-European and protectionist agenda of the AfD is consolidated in the states of the former Democratic Republic. The reunification of 1991 did not help them to catch up with the rest of the country. Thuringia, Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anthal and Mecklenburg-Pomerania are not as rich as the western states. All will hold elections next year and the AfD aspires to achieve several victories.
It remains to be seen, however, if the triumphs predicted by the polls will help him govern. The Christian Democrats confirm that they will never agree with the AfD. Its leader, Fiedrich Merz, opened a few days ago to specific pacts in smaller institutions. This change of position was very badly received, also within his own party, and he had to rectify it. The AfD's association with the Nazi past is all too obvious.
