The feeling of the last three years has been to climb one mountain after another and discover that there are still more peaks to climb.
This is the image used by Kristalina Georgieva, director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to illustrate this Thursday, at a conference in Washington, "a recovery that is difficult to achieve."
The prospects for world economic growth in the next five years are "the weakest in more than three decades," he stressed.
Ahead of the IMF's spring meeting next week and in advance of projections to be presented on Tuesday, Georgieva said the global economy will grow around 3% over the next five years, the lowest figure since the 1990s. the nineties. It is also below the five-year average of 3.8% for the past two decades.
About 90% of advanced economies will experience a growth slowdown this year as tighter monetary policy hits demand and slows economic activity in the United States and the eurozone, the IMF forecast.
“With geopolitical tensions rising and inflation still high, it remains difficult to achieve a solid recovery,” said the director.
“This hurts everyone's prospects, especially the most vulnerable people and countries,” he added. “This will make it more difficult to reduce poverty, heal the economy from the wounds of the crisis and provide new and better opportunities for all,” she insisted.
Some emerging markets are showing strength, especially in Asia. India and China are expected to account for half of the global expansion.
However, low-income countries are affected by weakening demand for their exports, and their per capita income growth remains below that of emerging economies. To the point that hunger, which increased during the pandemic, could increase.
Despite gloomy expansion forecasts, high inflation forces central banks to continue raising interest rates as long as pressures on financial stability remain limited following the turmoil in the banking sector in the United States and Switzerland, Georgieva stressed. .
Banks have been shown to have come a long way since the 2008 financial crisis, the IMF chief said. “In general, banks are stronger and more resilient, and authorities have been remarkably swift and thorough in their actions on last few weeks," he said. But she noted that concerns remain about vulnerabilities that may be hidden.
"This is not the time for complacency," he warned. He argued that if the banking system becomes unstable, monetary policy makers will face a tougher choice between inflation and financial protection.
