This Monday the first criminal trial of a former president in the history of the United States begins in New York. Donald Trump is accused of 34 counts related to the document falsification scheme he created to bribe porn actress Stormy Daniels in 2016. In the midst of the election campaign, the mogul bought her silence about a relationship they had had a decade ago, and justified the payments as part of your legal expenses. Crimes that could lead the Republican candidate to a decade in prison before the November presidential elections, creating an unprecedented situation that, however, would not prevent him from running for office.
The trial was initially scheduled for March 25, but Trump's legal team managed to delay it, arguing that he needed more time to prepare his defense. Last week, he filed up to three appeals against the judge handling the case, Juan Merchan, alleging that he has a conflict of interest because his daughter is a Democratic political consultant. But he could not further delay the start of a criminal trial that is already inevitable: the three appeals were immediately rejected by an appeals court.
This is the least serious accusation of the four that Trump faces (in addition to New York, in Washington, Georgia and Florida), but it could be his only trial before the elections, since his strategy of delaying the other processes is having greater success. .
The trial will begin with the selection of a jury of 12 anonymous citizens of New York, from among the hundred who are summoned this week. Each of them must answer 42 questions designed to verify their impartiality about the former president: "What media do you consume?", "Do you consider yourself a follower of the QAnon movement?", "Do you have a strong opinion about the former president and candidate Donald Trump?", among others.
It is not clear how long the criminal process can drag on, but a verdict can be expected before the November elections. Jury selection usually lasts one or two weeks; and the testimony phase, approximately one month, so the verdict could arrive at the beginning of June.
Each of the 34 crimes is punishable by a maximum of four years in prison, and several jurists agree that, if found guilty, Trump could face at least a decade behind bars. The maximum sentence could be 20 years, the limit established in New York State for this class of crimes (Class E). However, this would not deprive her of running for election, since no article of the Constitution prohibits it, and the judge would probably allow her to attend his campaign events.
The case formally began in March of last year, when a Manhattan grand jury voted in favor of the indictment brought by District Attorney Alvin Bragg. The accusation alleges that, in the electoral context, Trump hid his $130,000 payment from public opinion and that helped him win the elections. In this way, the accusation of document falsification is aggravated by an alleged violation of state campaign financing laws.
Tump made the payment through his then-attorney, Michael Cohen, to whom he allegedly transferred the $130,000 after becoming president and recorded it as legal expenses of the Trump Organization. Cohen, now converted into an enemy of the magnate, acknowledged the existence of that payment and pleaded guilty. Trump's former lawyer will be the star witness in this case and his statement could be decisive for the legal future of his former boss.
In the same period, the then-candidate allegedly made another similar bribe, of $150,000, to Playboy model Karen McDougal. On that occasion, he was covered by the parent company of the National Enquirer, on behalf of Trump. And prosecutor Bragg also cites a third payment of $30,000 to a former Trump Tower doorman to silence a story about an alleged son of the former president out of wedlock. However, neither of these two allegations is part of the indictment.
Of his four charges, this case is the one that Americans view with the most skepticism, according to a survey published last week by Ipsos. Just over a third of those who responded to the survey rate the crimes as "very serious", unlike the other three trials, which are perceived that way by more than half of the population.
In Washington, he is accused of trying to reverse the results of the 2020 elections; in Georgia, for his attempt to manipulate the vote count in that key state; and in Florida, for taking and retaining more than a hundred classified documents in his private Mar-a-Lago club, in Palm Beach, when leaving the White House in 2021.
