With just 17 days left until the elections to the Basque Parliament on the 21st, the Basque pre-campaign has not yet started and the electoral atmosphere is far from soaking up social life in Euskadi. The Easter holidays, which in the case of schoolchildren and some workers include the entire Easter week, have forced the parties to dose and delay their electoral efforts and, furthermore, in Bizkaia, which concentrates more than half of the population of the community, the focus is much more on the final of the Copa del Rey that this Saturday faces Athletic and Mallorca.
In the streets of Bilbao, Durango or Gernika it is much more common these days to hear about trips to Seville to witness this sporting event, a real event for a part of Biscayan society, than about the latest proposal by Imanol Pradales (PNV) , Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu) or Eneko Andueza (PSE). This is a circumstance with an obvious banal component, but which, however, the parties have assumed normally.
“The campaign is going to be concentrated in a very few days. There are many votes at stake that will be decided in just ten days,” the team of one of the candidates points out. This situation coincides with a trend, emerging in Basque society, in which the vote is increasingly volatile and the campaigns decide more, so what happens once the electoral maelstrom breaks out, with the current situation fully focused on Basque politics, a good number of debates between candidates and the electoral contest appearing on the networks or bus shelters.
“In the last CIS regarding the Basque elections, 6% of those surveyed say that they decide the vote in front of the ballot box, 5% do so during the reflection day and 20% say that they will decide in the last week. . Which means that 31% of the electorate will decide in the coming days,” explains Ainara Villaño, political scientist and political communication expert at the consulting firm Silván.
According to the data from the latest Sociometer of the Basque Government, the average number of undecided people is around 27%. “We are talking about people who say 'I don't know' when asked who they are going to vote for, not declared abstentionists, although they may not ultimately vote. That 27% is outrageous; In 2020, at this point, they were 10%, and in 2016, 12%,” adds Villaño.
Concern about the lack of electoral tension, however, goes by neighborhood. At Sabin Etxea it is noticeable, while at EH Bildu a certain lack of concern is perceived. The Jeltzales have a voting loyalty of 63% with respect to the 2020 elections (that is, six out of ten of those who voted for them indicate that they will repeat), while in the Abertzale coalition this loyalty is 88%, always taking As a reference, the 2020 appointment.
The PNV has breathed a sigh of relief after learning the data from the CIS, which gives them a representation of 30-31 seats, similar to the current one, after carrying out 5,000 surveys, a very high sample. However, they are aware that the margin of error skyrockets with such a high percentage of undecided people. The Jeltzales believe that their success on April 21 involves mobilizing their electorate and they appeal to fear of Bildu, to “experiments” in management. The tedious climate of the pre-campaign, however, seems unfavorable for these harangues to have an effect. Basque society is focused on other things, something that, on the other hand, is still a sign that Basque politics has finally settled into normality.
