The incommunicado between Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras did not prevent the ex-president from thanking Pere Aragonès' "affectionate" message on Wednesday after the ruling that removes his immunity as MEP. It was not an isolated message. The contacts do not lead to consider the relations between Junts and ERC to be greasy, but they do show that they all understand the convenience of joining forces after 23-J if Vox and the PP prevail.
The distance is great and the backpacks, heavy. Gabriel Rufián tries to regret - he had boasted about it throughout the legislature - having felt "alone" in the "defense of Catalonia" while Junts followed the show from the tribune "eating pipes". The CUP is the other recipient of the blow, but the grudge between republicans and post-convergents makes more noise. "Is anyone against taking nine politicians out of prison?", he let loose in the La Vanguardia and RAC1 debate.
Despite successes such as the pardons, ERC accuses the wear and tear of the negotiation with the PSOE and the management alone in Catalonia; and will not find allies to socialize this punishment before going to the polls. The aim of Junts this campaign is to overtake. "Hold on and get one more seat than ERC". The rest is the tip. A PP-Vox alliance would feed the discourse of confrontation brandished in the last five years and place the post-convergents at the head of the demonstration with ERC reorganizing its strategy from the Government. Looking for supports and a stability that Junts, grown up, could deny them.
On the contrary, being decisive for a hypothetical investiture of Pedro Sánchez would once again demonstrate the different souls of the party. To negotiate or not to negotiate? With the results of 23-J in hand, ERC believes that it will be time to resume the direct line with Junts. When Aragonès raised after 28-M a sovereignist front contacts were initiated to include a minimum common denominator in the program. They collapsed before starting due to the crossing of local alliances with the PSC and because, when negotiating, Laura Borràs's speech despises Marta Vilalta's pragmatic independence.
In 2019, the Republicans worked for months on negotiation lines until they got Sánchez to accept the dialogue table in a discreet meeting with Aragonès in Moncloa. Junts' strategy is to sit at the table with the PSOE, but the will to dialogue is questionable. "Why vote" someone - asks Nogueras - if there is no amnesty or self-determination?. ERC wants to raise the price and that of Junts, Sánchez cannot pay it. Only Puigdemont's approval could open another political framework. But the judgment of the General Court of the EU removes it; that the Euroorder is activated in a campaign, it turns it into a remote one; and with an arrest, it will be indefinitely impossible.
ERC cannot sign up for the blockade after years of discourse to "broaden the base", despite the scenario of a decline in its electoral expectations and suffering alone in the Palau de la Generalitat. The management does not add up and the crises remain. Hence Aragonès' interest in including the parliamentary stability of the Government - with other budgets - in a new understanding with Junts. Would they return to the Government this legislature? "It would be unserious". There are other formulas... and too many unknowns.
