Current Spain has never been as red as in 1983 or as blue as in 2011. The situation has been nuanced in other stages, with a predominance of the red PSOE, the blue PP, or a certain balance, such as that of 2019. This is why the elections of May 28 are so relevant from a territorial point of view. After this event, the balance could be maintained: with Galicia, Castile and León, Madrid, Andalusia and Murcia in the hands of the PP, and Asturias, Aragon, Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands in the hands of the PSOE.
But if this balance were to be broken through some geographically or demographically extensive autonomy, the territorial power would swing decisively in favor of the PP, especially if the relief took place in the Valencian Community. Historical experience indicates that anything is possible in this last territory, governed in equal parts for 40 years by the left and the right. And although the prognoses appear very tight, the increased mobilization of the conservative electorate seems to play in favor of the relay.
However, beyond what the polls predict, it is necessary to see what the historical trajectory of each autonomy says about the possibilities of an alternation of local power after 28-M. The attached row of maps is eloquent, with communities that have only changed its political sign during a single legislature and whose governments tend to perpetuate themselves, unlike others more prone to alternation.
From here, the prognoses of the surveys fit quite well with the profile of each territory. For example, Extremadura is one of the autonomous regions where the relief seems difficult but not impossible, because it has already happened before. For its part, Aragon (which sometimes behaves electorally like a small Spain) is a territory that has experienced a lot of changes, but the current correlation makes it difficult for the PSOE to take over because the party map is complex and no one, except for the PP, he seems ready to govern with the support of Vox.
The situation is similar in Navarre, where an eventual victory of the right would not translate into a majority government, since the rest of the groups would support the PSOE. On the other hand, La Rioja and the Balearic Islands, with a historical balance favorable to the conservative bloc, could easily change their political color in 28- M. And the same can be said of the Canary Islands, which has already registered socialist victories without an absolute majority have resulted in access to the insular Government in the face of the pact between the regionalists and the PP.
On the contrary, Asturias and, above all, Madrid or Murcia draw trajectories and electoral scenarios where change does not seem possible in the next regional elections. And, in Cantabria, history supports a tight fight between the bloc made up of PP and Vox and that which supports the regionalist Revilla.
