The blowing up of the hydroelectric plant and part of the Kakhovka dam, above the Dnieper River, may go down in the history of Ukraine as one of the most senseless military operations, in addition to being – according to the Geneva Convention – a crime of war
The gates of the Novà Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper, about 30 meters high and 3.2 kilometers from side to side, are already damaged and overflowing with water, but the explosion recorded on Monday night at the plant causing an avenue of water that raised the level of the river by 11 meters.
According to satellite images, the break in the wall is about 600 meters wide. The fact that it is an earth dam and not concrete, and that the terrain is flat, prevented an even more dramatic effect.
As the hours passed, around 80 localities downstream were affected by the flood, 24 of them practically flooded. Ukrainian authorities evacuated around 17,000 people, mostly in half a dozen towns closest to the dam. About 25,000 more people were affected on the left bank – or south – of the Dnieper, occupied by the Russian army, where evacuations also took place.
Kyiv and Moscow again crossed accusations about the destruction of this infrastructure which, in addition to denying agricultural land, inhabited centers and the ecosystem of the estuary, endangers the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, upstream. There were already these indications in October 2022, when Ukrainian troops were advancing on Kherson.
Now, Kyiv accuses Russia of planting explosives there, since it occupies the plant – which it disconnected from the Ukrainian grid – and Moscow accuses Ukraine of bombing it. Both have called for international condemnation. Meanwhile, White House Homeland Security spokesman John Kirby said the United States is working with the Ukrainians to investigate. "We cannot say conclusively at this moment what happened", he said.
But who could benefit from this disaster?
A model developed by a Swedish hydrological engineering company - Dämningsverket - for the case of a dam break indicated that the most flooded territories would be those on the south bank of the Dnieper, while on the north bank part of the flow would be absorbed by the Inhulets river, and another by the Pivdenni Buh, which passes through Mikolaiv. In this regard, the statements of the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, stand out, who said yesterday: "Civilians in the temporarily occupied settlements in the Kherson region and Crimea are in a critical situation, since the destruction of the dam has deprived of fresh water.
In addition, the positions of Russian military units were flooded, which could lead to the large-scale denial of Russian minefields and their detonation in a chaotic manner."
In fact, Russian troops fortified themselves on the south bank when they crossed the Dnieper during their withdrawal from the city of Kherson in November 2022, in anticipation of a – very risky – Ukrainian attempt to cross the river. From these positions, Russian artillery continues to bombard the Ukrainian side.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Ukraine of blowing up the dam to cover the movement of its own troops from Kherson "into the area of offensive operations" (that is, further into east), so that it prevented the Russian forces, with the flood caused, from attacking. The context to which Xoigú was referring is that of the first movements observed these days of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. According to this, Kyiv would be interested in moving troops from the Kherson region to Zaporizhia.
On the other hand, for the Russians to flood their own southern bank would make a landing even more difficult for the Ukrainians if they wanted to.
Another aspect pointed out by the Ukrainian deputy minister, the supply of water in Crimea, was not clear yesterday. The channel originates just on the other side of the dam. The Russian leader of Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, said that "there is a risk that the North Crimea channel will become shallow", although "there is more than enough drinking water and "work is being done to minimize water losses”. It should be remembered that, after the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainians closed the canal, which caused a disaster in the agriculture of the peninsula. With the Russian invasion in the south of the country, the canal was reopened.
The other particularly sensitive point is the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is at the end of the dam and in the middle of a large reservoir of 240 by 23 kilometers. Its six reactors are shut down, but cooling water is needed equally for the waste and diesel generators. The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said yesterday that the level of the reservoir had dropped and there was a possibility that water could not be pumped into the circuits. In any case, he pointed out, the cooling pool, which is above the level of the Dnieper, contains enough water, since the reactors are turned off, to last a few months. Grossi was scheduled to go to Zaporizhia next week.
On the other hand, it was learned yesterday that the Joe Biden Government acceded to a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, reports Fernando García from Washington. The news came three months before, in September, the sabotage was perpetrated by underwater explosions that severely damaged the pipes. It was published yesterday by The Washington Post citing leaked reports. The CIA learned the information in June through a European spy agency.
According to the document, six members of the Ukrainian special forces intended to blow up the pipelines.
The document was based, according to the Post, on information obtained from an individual in Ukraine and would show that for almost a year Westerners have had a basis to suspect Kyiv of being responsible for the sabotage. But the information, which included specific data on the number of operatives and attack methods, could not be immediately corroborated.
The possible Ukrainian link, writes the Post, "only strengthened in recent months, when German police investigators discovered evidence about the attack that has striking similarities to what the European intelligence had indicated that Ukraine was planning."
