Why doesn't Pedro Sánchez go back despite the good economic data? The answer is because of the amnesty and the Koldo case. The two facts explain that all the opinion polls reflect a strong electoral attrition of the PSOE in the face of a strong improvement of the Popular.
Having the economy subordinated to politics is probably what explains the strong pessimism that exists in a large part of the Spanish population, despite the fact that the dreaded recession resulting from the war in Ukraine has been avoided. Nor can it be ignored that the good data of the short and medium term situation contrast with the bad expectations in the long term.
Who else is aware of the huge debt we carry and the budgetary imbalances that drag on year after year, but on a day-to-day basis things are going quite well. All analysts agree that there are no clouds on the economic front. The forecasts of international organizations are optimistic for this year and the following.
It is very likely that Spain will end the financial year with a GDP growth of 2%, well above the EU average, which stands at 0.6%, and we are not talking about Germany or the large central economies , which are on the verge of recession. There are good tourism data. Employment is improving and Social Security members rose by 2.7% in February, while unemployment fell by 5.2%. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sector ( PMI ) place them above 50%, which means we are moving away from paralysis and producing at a good pace. Foreign trade has a surplus of 3.5% thanks to exports.
Expectations are improving, everything suggests that interest rates could start to fall from April or May. European funds are arriving at a good pace and represent an injection for growth.
In large companies, wages grow by 3.5% on average while employment is created at a rate of 2.9% according to data provided by the Tax Agency. Collective bargaining also reflects that the average wage increase is for the first time above inflation, which stands at 2.8% and could end the year at 2%. We don't even talk about pensions.
It is not surprising that consumption starts to pull, as shown by some advanced indicators, such as the rise in house prices or sales. And the same can be said of rail or air transport. Car sales have risen by 12.2% up to February. The recent rains bring a lull in the countryside and the price of electricity is at historic lows.
If the stock market is at its best, what is happening? Is Sanchez given so little trust? Why have the Spanish settled into pessimism?
Political tension hurts us all. Especially in investment and employment.
