The internal numbers that Compromís manages are good. The optimistic estimation of the vote made -based on the data offered by a quantitative study carried out by GFK, applying socioeconomic weightings, vote recall, certainty of participation and conviction of the vote- indicates that the formation would be around 18-20% of the votes In the last ones they achieved 16.81%.
The result of the next regional elections of 28M is at stake in several scenarios and one of them is that Compromís holds the numbers and achieves third position by adding more deputies than Vox, the party that should improve its results for (together with the growth of the PP that no one argues anymore) to make a change of government possible.
It has not been an easy legislature for Compromís after losing its political reference and electoral leader in recent years in June 2022. The (forced) resignation of Vice President Mónica Oltra forced a forced replacement that raised doubts about the coalition's electoral chances after years of oltra-dependence.
And it is that it is difficult to match the pull of Oltra. According to the pre-election survey carried out by the CIS before the elections – with a very accurate forecast where it only underestimated Vox and overrepresented the PSPV – the Compromís candidate was the most valued with 5 and 73.1% of knowledge. Ximo Puig stayed at 4.8. However, there was 22.8% who preferred the Socialist candidate to be president of the Generalitat compared to 15.6% who wanted Oltra to be.
The quantitative study carried out by Compromís now places Baldoví at a knowledge quota of 70% (figures similar to those of Oltra in 2019 and below the 98% attributed to Puig by the internal study of Valencian supporters), but twenty points ahead of Carlos Mazón. According to this report to which La Vanguardia has had access, Baldoví is better known than the leader of the PP even in the Alicante constituency, despite the fact that Mazón presides over that council. Likewise, also behind Ximo Puig, Baldoví surpasses Mazón in preference as president of the Generalitat. Regarding the assessment of leaders, according to the study commissioned by the Valencianistas, Baldoví and Puig would tie with a 5 (the same grade that the CIS gave Oltra in 2019).
This newspaper has already published that one of the assets of the deputy in Congress was the good grade that Baldoví obtained among the voters of the PSPV and Podemos. In addition, when the data was crossed, by 'socioeconomic status of the person interviewed' the best grade (5.32) was obtained by Baldoví among upper/middle-upper class voters.
In Compromís they are convinced that their candidate is "extremely competitive on the left of the political board" where the formation competes with both Unides Podem and the PSPV. In this part of the ideological spectrum, the same sources point out, the knowledge and appreciation of Baldoví is even greater.
Even in Alicante, where the brand can suffer (in the last elections it stayed at 11%), they believe that the knowledge of the deputy can pull. Still, it won't be easy.
If you look at the result from four years ago now, you can see how in this province the result of Compromís was far from the 14.5% of Castelló or the great result of the province of Valencia where it was placed as the second political force with 20, 90% of the votes.
In Alicante, Compromís worked better in Valencian-speaking regions such as Marina Alta (22.76%) or L'Alcoià (16.65%) and succumbed in La Vega Baja (4.82%) or L'Alacantí (9.7% ), the two most populated and congregate about 45% of the population of the province.
In Valencia, on the other hand, it responded very well, being the leading political force in the city (21.24% of the votes) and in the regions of Vall d'Albaida (28.94). the Ribera Baixa (27.46) and Alta (24.49) or the Safor (26.25).
The pull of the mayors of these towns can be key to mobilizing the Compromís vote. According to his studies, mobilization is high since 85% of his voters would be convinced to go to the polls on the 28th. And another interesting fact from this study; the coalition has a balanced vote transfer balance with the PSPV (translated: it loses voters to the socialists as many as it wins). On the other hand, the balance is positive with respect to Unides, from which it receives approximately 25% of the votes it received in 2019, while in the opposite direction the figure does not reach 3%.
These transfers of votes are important to see the strength that each formation would have in a hypothetical third Botànic. Already in the 2019 elections, according to the CIS post-electoral study, Compromís took advantage of the drop in Unides Podem (which went from 13 to 8 deputies) to maintain itself despite the growth of the PSPV. According to the CIS, 19.4% of its voters in 2019 came from Podemos and 14.6% from the US.
All in all, the important thing is to see the votes that the left bloc can wrest from the right bloc; a mission that the PSPV has to undertake in its idea of expanding its electoral base and preventing all Ciudadanos voters from going to the PP of Mazón, another of the keys that will mark the future of 28M.
