Emmanuel Macron, whom the Constitution prevents from being re-elected in 2027, has two obsessions: to maintain the reformist halo in his second term and to prevent the doors of the Elysée from opening to the extreme right in 2027. The two goals are interconnected If the next few years are sterile and turbulent, the road will be paved for Marine Le Pen to win the presidency.
The political and social crisis caused by the pension reform has weakened Macron and placed him in the most delicate situation since he came to power in 2017. In contrast, Le Pen, twice defeated by the current president , sees his electoral base broaden. This is the unanimous opinion of political analysts, from conservatives to leftists. Also the leader of the main trade union (CFDT), Laurent Berger, has warned about what is coming. A recent poll by Le Journal du Dimanche confirmed this. If there were legislative elections today, the National Regroupment (RN), Le Pen's party, would get 26% of the vote, almost seven points more than in the June elections. The left-wing coalition (Nupes) would remain at 26%. Macron's party (Renaissance) would remain at 22%, almost five points less.
It is obvious that between now and 2027 the scenario may change, but these figures confirm the fears that have been expressed confidentially from those around Macron for months, long before the pensions fiasco. The nightmare of the Macronists is that what has happened in the United States is repeated, where, after two mandates of the Democrat Barack Obama, he defeated Donald Trump. It would be an ominous legacy for a young and ambitious, pro-European team that sought to modernize France with a centrist and liberal program.
The day before yesterday, the newspaper Libération published on its cover a close-up of Le Pen looking back, with a threatening point, and this headline: "The beneficiary". The weekly L'Obs, in its penultimate issue, also chose the far-right leader for the front page. "The silent conquest", he headlined.
In its editorial, L'Obs was fatalistic. "A certain panic is setting in in the corridors of power - wrote the director of the magazine -. The question is no longer whether she can win the next presidential elections but whether she can still lose".
Libération pondered how to stop the rise of the far right. "Only a left that is both offensive and credible in its desire for social transformation will be able to act as a wall", warned the newspaper, a historical tribune of French progressivism.
What is paradoxical about Le Pen is that, without doing almost anything, with a passive and expectant attitude towards pension reform, without offering any alternative, she is rising in the polls. The extreme right is taking advantage of Macron's and his government's lackadaisical management, as well as a histrionic radical left with some of the ways of anti-system and extra-parliamentary forces.
Since succeeding her father at the head of the party, more than twelve years ago, Marine Le Pen has proceeded to demonize and normalize her party, even changing its name. The success has been obvious. In April last year, he got almost 41.5% of the vote against Macron in the second round of the presidential elections. In the legislatures, RN won 88 seats, something never seen before.
This parliamentary troop constitutes a key factor, a lever to project the party higher and improve the expectations of Le Pen if he again aspires to the Elysee - for the fourth time in a row - in 2027. It is said, in fact, that after returning to lose against Macron she considered withdrawing, but the excellent results in the legislative elections made her change her mind.
In a National Assembly in which the Macronists have only a relative majority and where the banter is constant -especially because of the attitude of the radical left-, the far-right deputies, with some exceptions, try to give an institutional image, of seriousness, starting with the use of the tie. His work in the constituencies is even more decisive. Far-right MPs are already part of the landscape and are shedding the stigma of undesirables. They do it methodically, with patience. They attend receptions and public events, build relationships with mayors and aldermen of small towns and cities, and are helpful to constituents when they ask them for help with administrative procedures.
Faced with a macronism in clear decline and a radicalizing left, Le Pen and hers are there, taking advantage of the popular unrest and presenting themselves as a calm, solid force, waiting to reach a critical mass so that the his victory seems natural and inevitable.
