It seems that the enlargement of the European Union will be one of the strong themes of the new European political course, which begins with a proposal that gives an idea of the extent to which the war in Ukraine has changed the geopolitical landscape of the continent: accept the entry of new member states by 2030.
"We have to set a clear goal. We must be ready - on both sides - to expand in 2030", said the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, at the debate forum in Bled (Slovenia) yesterday, a fact that for the first time set a date for a a process that, until the beginning of the Russian invasion, had fallen into oblivion to the frustration of the aspirants, especially from the Western Balkans, who 20 years ago were solemnly promised that their future was "within the EU".
The affair will focus on the informal summit that the European leaders will hold in Granada in October, and also the meeting in December, in which they will have to pronounce on the request of Ukraine and Moldova, which a year ago obtained the candidate status, to immediately start accession talks. In Brussels it is taken for granted that the answer will be positive. The rest of the candidate or aspiring countries for accession (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro and Serbia, in addition to Turkey), for their part, trust that this political impetus will translate into progress in their own processes.
"If we want to be credible, we have to talk about the calendar", emphasized Michel. The goal of expanding the EU in 2030 is "ambitious but necessary" and would demonstrate that "we are serious", insisted the community leader while asking that the next community budget be up to this challenge and have funds necessary to speed up the reforms in the candidate countries for accession, which he asks to start referring to as "future member states".
In the EU, the challenge is faced with an additional dose of realism provided by the last major enlargement, in 2004 and 2007, in the end considered hasty in many capitals. Ideas are circulating such as opting for a "gradual" entry into Community policies as a step before full membership, or the inclusion of a "confidence clause", as Michel proposed yesterday, to ensure that the new member states do not they will be able to block the entry of those who arrive later. There is also a new concept on the table: the "absorption capacity" of the club itself.
Because not only applicants will have to hit the accelerator to be ready in 2030 for a hypothetical expansion. The EU will also need to make internal reforms to ensure that it is able to withstand an enlargement that is more complex than ever before and to ensure that it does not fall into institutional paralysis. Spurred on by Berlin and Paris, European leaders have begun discussing possible changes to how the Union makes decisions and uses its funds. "The danger is believing that we can expand without reforming," said French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris yesterday, who defended the old idea of a multi-speed Union.
In June, a dozen leaders (Macron, the German Olaf Scholz, the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the Spanish Pedro Sánchez and the Polish Mateusz Morawiecki) already held an informal breakfast in Brussels to address these issues. At the same time, an alliance of countries has been formed that want to bury the rule of unanimity in decisions on foreign policy and another to, on the contrary, demand that it be maintained. Michel supported this attitude: unity, however difficult it may be to achieve, is "the strength" of the EU, claimed the Belgian liberal politician.
Beyond these changes, reforms are imposed on the budget. The potential income of countries with an income much lower than that of the poorest members of the current EU, or of Ukraine, the world's sixth largest producer of cereals, force us to rethink agricultural aid and cohesion policy.
