2023 has been a catastrophic year for geopolitical affairs. The war between Russia and Ukraine, which started the previous year, did not stop and the war between Israel and Hamas, which broke out on October 7, was added to it.
The expected collapse of the Russian army has not happened. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner division who had openly questioned the authority of Vladimir Putin, died, officially in an accident. Putin's power over Russia is now more firmly established than ever. The Westerners, who decided to withdraw from Russia in order to sanction it, have allowed it to recover assets worth 100,000 million dollars that were abandoned practically in exchange for nothing and that the Russian power has been able to redistribute among its relatives.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched in the summer of 2023, has failed. In a similar context, it is most likely that the military situation will stagnate and allow Russia to retain part of the Ukrainian territory. This result is a major defeat for the West, as they themselves had declared that their credibility would suffer if Ukraine lost the game and therefore Putin won the war.
The Ukrainian issue is also the subject of intense debate in the United States, where Republicans and Democrats are fighting over whether or not they should continue massively supporting Ukraine. The White House continues to support Kyiv; however, if Donald Trump were to return to power next year, US aid to Ukraine would be permanently suspended. Vladimir Putin could then emerge victorious, at least from a communicative point of view.
The great mistake of the Westerners is to have confused the desirable (the defeat of Russia) with the possible. The fact is that the demographic proportions are tilted in favor of Russia: Russians are four times more numerous than Ukrainians. The Russian defense industry is running at full speed with the support of Iran and North Korea. Russia has been weakened by the departure of many Russians who have fled repression and mobilization. She is isolated from the Western world, which is united against her; however, it still has cards to play in what has been called the Global South. It can be said that the war in Gaza has played in their favor.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched bloody attacks against Israel. And Israel has undertaken a vast military operation in Gaza to eradicate Hamas. The massive bombings have already caused more than 21,000 deaths and caused a catastrophic humanitarian situation. Gaza is a children's cemetery. While there is no excuse for the attacks on October 7, there is also no excuse for the massive and indiscriminate bombing of civilian populations that are also subject to a blockade.
The situation in the Middle East offers Vladimir Putin a weighty argument against the West. The latter have not stopped asking the countries of the Global South, the non-Western countries, to impose sanctions against Russia for having seized territories by force and bombed civilian populations, which is prohibited by international law. However, these same Western countries recognize Israel's unconditional right to defend itself, even though Israel is also occupying territories and also bombing civilian populations.
There will be a before and an after October 7 in Israeli public opinion, which has been damaged. He thought he was living in a safe sanctuary and safe from the blows and he has realized that is not the case. The attacks have been an undeniable shock to Israel. However, there will also be a before and an after of the Gaza war, because the images that reach us of Palestinian civilian populations under Israeli bombardment may be less visible in the Western world but are widely disseminated throughout the world, and they will also leave their mark on the collective consciousness.
In both cases, to varying degrees, there is a difference in appreciation between Western and non-Western countries. Western countries condemn Russia and support Israel. Non-Western countries consider it completely abnormal to condemn Russia and not condemn Israel for bombing civilian populations. This difference in perception grows and isolates the Western world from the rest of the world.
