It's 2005. House prices are rising well above inflation and developers repeat the mantra that they will always continue to do so. There is optimism and construction is taking place like never before.
Banks offer mortgages left and right. Families, fooled by a type of fear of being left behind, are becoming over-indebted.
It's 2007 and the bubble begins to falter. Before exploding, a new sales record is reached. And the rest is history.
Today there are still banks - and investment funds - with extensive portfolios of apartments confiscated during the subsequent crisis. Some squatted. Other voids. Some are for sale, but they are being sold very little by little. They were purchased at a very high price and companies want to make the maximum profit.
Maybe, and just maybe, this surplus could solve the housing problem in Spain. In a country in which a large part of the population's purchasing power comes from their real estate assets, the debate is not trivial nor should it be ignored.
Those who bought “high” have regretted it for a decade. Resigned, they had almost assumed their financial loss.
But the truth is that housing prices in 2024, in the cities with the greatest demand, have already recovered and are beginning to resemble those of 2007 and 2008.
In Palma, for example, they almost double those of the bubble, according to idealista data. Madrid, Málaga or San Sebastián do not double them, but they far exceed them. Bilbao or València are still below, but they are advancing determined to pass them by. Barcelona has had prices more or less stagnant for six years, but close to those levels.
And those who bought an overpriced apartment feel that it is a good time to redeem themselves and sell the home to recover the investment. Above all, it is considered by holders of very high mortgages to amortize the capital and get rid of a high debt that has weighed down their economy for more than a decade.
Even then there was no consensus: many experts assured that what we were experiencing was not a real estate bubble, dazzled by optimism. But it was.
Today the sector trusts that what is happening is not a real estate bubble.
Taking a look at the advertisements, many apartments are still overpriced, with prices based more on the sellers' expectations than on tangible facts, and at numbers that only those who pay in full can afford.
In fact, the European Commission, in its Alert Mechanism Report for 2024, confirms that housing in Spain is overvalued by approximately 20% and that real prices, discounting inflation, would fall this year.
History always repeats itself, but it is no longer building beyond possibilities. The margin for speculation, although existing, is more limited. New buyers no longer purchase so much new construction, but rather second-hand housing. And then they reform it to their liking.
The market is getting smarter. Banking is more prudent and families are no longer over-indebted. If the economic effort has increased it is because salaries have not recovered at the same time as the price of apartments. And with the recession in demand, derived from the rise in interest rates, the opportunity opens up to, at least, stop further increases.
