The lack of communication between Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras did not prevent the former president from thanking Pere Aragonès for his “affectionate” message on Wednesday after the sentence that removed his immunity as an MEP. It was not an isolated message. The contacts do not allow us to consider the relations between Junts and ERC oiled, but they do show that everyone understands the convenience of joining forces after 23-J if Vox and the PP prevail.
The distance is great, and the backpacks are heavy. Gabriel Rufián makes an effort to regret – he had stuck out his chest throughout the legislature – having felt “alone” in the “defense of Catalonia” while Junts followed the show from the stands “eating pipes”. The CUP is the other recipient of the coup, but the anger between Republicans and post-convergents makes more noise. “Is anyone against taking nine politicians out of jail?” He released in the La Vanguardia and RAC1 debate.
Despite achievements such as pardons, ERC accuses the wear and tear of the negotiation with the PSOE and the solo management in Catalonia, and will not find allies to socialize this punishment before going to the polls. The objective of Junts this campaign is the sorpasso. "Hold on and get one more seat than ERC". The rest is the tip. A PP-Vox alliance would feed the confrontational discourse brandished in the last five years and would place the post-convergents at the forefront of the demonstration with ERC reorganizing its strategy from the Government. Looking for support and stability that Junts, emboldened, could deny.
On the contrary, being decisive for a hypothetical investiture of Pedro Sánchez would once again show the different souls of the party. To negotiate or not to negotiate? With the results of 23-J in hand, at ERC they believe that it will be time to resume the direct line with Junts. When Aragonès raised a pro-sovereignty front after 28-M, contacts began to include a minimum common denominator in the program. They collapsed before starting due to the crossing of local alliances with the PSC and because, when it comes to negotiating, Laura Borràs's speech belittles the pragmatic independence movement of Marta Vilalta.
In 2019, the Republicans worked for months on negotiation lines until they managed to get Sánchez to accept the dialogue table in a discreet appointment with Aragonès in Moncloa. Junts' strategy involves sitting down at the table with the PSOE, but the will to dialogue is questionable. "Why vote" for someone, asks Nogueras, if there is no amnesty or self-determination? ERC wants to raise the price, and for Junts, Sánchez cannot afford it. Only a go-ahead from Puigdemont could open another political framework. But the ruling of the General Court of the EU distances him; The fact that the Euroorder is activated in the campaign makes it remote; and with a detention, it will be indefinitely impossible.
ERC cannot sign up to the blockade after years of discourse to "broaden the base", despite the scenario of lowering its electoral expectations and suffering alone in the Palau de la Generalitat. Management does not add up, and crises subtract. Hence Aragonès's interest in including the parliamentary stability of the Government –with other assumptions– in a new entente with Junts. Would they return to the Government this legislature? "It would not be serious." There are other formulas... and too many unknowns.
