The PP brought forward the elections in Galicia to take advantage of the socialist weakness due to the amnesty law. In the final stretch of the campaign, he turned towards messages more attached to Galician concerns upon verifying that Ana Pontón, the BNG candidate, with a campaign critical of the management of the Xunta but constructive and that skirted around identity issues, almost gave him a scare. The turn in time took effect and the popular ones emerged victorious. On the way to half a century of autonomous Spain, each community cultivates its own codes. The elections for the presidency of the Generalitat are perhaps one of the most decisive for Spanish politics in recent decades because the pacts between Pedro Sánchez and the independentists provoke a curious symbiosis. But what is relevant will be to intuit the priority motivation of the voters on May 12. Will Catalans vote, driven to keep the flame of the procés alive? Will they do it with the desire to “turn the page”? Or will they think about who can best manage homelessness, poor education outcomes, drought or the tourism model?
The amnesty law has become a core issue of Spanish politics, one of those that brings the boiler within the M-30 to a boil, but the big question is what worries the Catalans most, the desire for independence, the unity of Spain or the management of other matters. Although ERC or Junts insist that both concerns are not exclusive, one always weighs more when voting. This is how Pontón perceived it in Galicia and did not hesitate to highlight his offer on housing or healthcare above the sovereign aspirations, which were taken for granted.
Pere Aragonès follows in Pontón's footsteps, but the difference is that she is in the opposition and he is in the government, so it is ERC that will receive criticism from the rest for its management. The Republicans present themselves at the beginning of the campaign as the only “responsible” independentists. The PSC, according to the Republicans, would also be included among those responsible, but they remember that Salvador Illa will never be able to "stand up" to Sánchez to demand more resources for Catalonia. Instead, they place Junts and the commons on the side of the irresponsible.
The leaders of Junts live in a curious ambivalence. Some days they declare themselves heirs to the baggage of Convergència's managerial solvency and the next day they deny that past to reinforce their image as implacable negotiators with the central government. No “peix al cove” or soft talk with the Spanish State, they proclaim. But the Junts campaign will be marked by Carles Puigdemont (like everything now in that party) and the former president has already shown signs that he wants it to revolve around his eventual return to Catalonia, with the consequent risk of being arrested and imprisoned.
Coups are the former president's specialty. The same Puigdemont who a couple of months ago privately assured the PSOE that he was willing to delay his return if the amnesty law was approved to avoid further wear and tear on Sánchez is the one who is now threatening to return even before the rule comes into force for cause a judicial earthquake. He would try to assume “a certain risk” of going to prison, in principle for two or three months, in exchange for winning the elections or, at least, overtaking ERC. At the moment it is his entourage that throws the bait. He has only said that he would like to be present for the president's inauguration session, when the amnesty law will already be in force. To return with a lower judicial risk, Puigdemont would have to run in the Catalan elections at the same time that he maintains his record as an MEP.
If Puigdemont manages to make the campaign revolve around his return, the speech will be placed where he feels most comfortable, that of the confrontation with the "repression of the State", the narrative that he has maintained for six years, but that the amnesty law was leaving behind. in siding. The scenario of an election marked by a possible return of Puigdemont harms ERC, but also the PSC, which received a lot of votes from Ciudadanos in the last elections, and also complicates the scenario for Sánchez. A return of the former president in the middle of the campaign would leave the recently launched dialogue between the PSOE and Junts affected. And, without a doubt, it would feed the PP and Vox.
Therefore, the rest of the candidates are interested in Puigdemont not being the protagonist and will try to direct the campaign to other issues. This is what Aragonès tries, but especially Illa. The Catalan socialists held their congress this weekend under the motto “Ara touches Catalunya”. The “ara touches” is the reverse of the “ara no touches” that Pujol used to use. A nostalgic wink that the PDCat also used to ask the classic convergers to vote. The poor educational results of the PISA report, the drought, the hesitations regarding projects such as the airport or the Hard Rock or the energy delay in Catalonia are his campaign slogans. The PSC comes to ask for the vote to return to the Catalonia that worked before turning all its attention to the process.
Identifying what these elections are about, what the priority of the Catalans is at this moment and not getting carried away by other arguments will be the key to this 12-M. The electoral results in Catalonia have been marking Spanish politics so far this century, from that photo of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero on the balcony of the Generalitat, embarking with the tripartite on the new Statute, passing through the independence process and its consequences, that today still determine the alliances that keep the PSOE in the Moncloa. If in Galicia Alberto Núñez Feijóo was at stake a lot, in Catalonia Pedro Sánchez is being examined.
