Two polls published in the last hours and of a very different sign, one published this Monday in El País and La Ser, and another, yesterday in El Mundo, coincide in cooling the electoral expectations of the PP president, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, regarding his own previous forecasts, along the lines already marked by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) in September, while all the polls from private institutes predicted a clear popular victory and in most cases granted or left it very close to an absolute majority with Vox.
It is striking that the two polls, starting from significantly different positions, predict the same setback for Feijóo in the last month: two points in vote estimation and between 6 and 7 seats less in December than in November. Thus, in the case of the poll prepared by 40dB for El Pais and La Ser, Feijóo would go from a forecast of 127 seats to 120, while Sigma Two for El Mundo attributes between 126 and 127 deputies to the PP while last month it gave between 132 and 133.
At the same time, the two studies forecast a slight recovery of both the PSOE and Vox. The overall result, however, is mixed. The El País survey proposes a scenario in which the current ruling majority would have the possibility of repeating itself with the support of the investiture, while the work of El Mundo only contemplates a very tight absolute majority of the right with the extreme right of Santiago Abascal and Navarra Suma .
The El Pais poll also points out that for the first time this year the PSOE would be very close to repeating the result of the last elections since the 27.8% estimate of the vote that the poll shows is half a point less than what he achieved in 2019. The barometer also highlights that, for the first time since May, when Alberto Núñez Feijóo assumed the presidency of the popular, his party falls almost two points compared to the previous month (28.1% in December) .
Likewise, the polling institute points out that the "leakage" of votes from the PSOE to the PP that it had detected after the replacement of the leadership in the popular ranks has been stopped. The study still indicates in this sense that in December the PSOE would lose 5% of its electorate in favor of the PP, but that figure has been reduced by 1.3 points in the last month and by more than 3 compared to the summer. At the same time, it points out that the Socialists recover almost 13% of the former voters of United We Can, 3 points more than in the previous month.
Regarding the rest of the parties and the estimate of seats, Vox would get 41, Unidas Podemos would get 30, ERC (13), JxC (9), PNV (6), Bildu (5), Más País (4), NA (2 ), BNG (2), Canary Islands Coalition (2), Ciudadanos (1), CUP (1), PRC (1), Teruel Exists (1).
According to a Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo, the loss of momentum of the PP, which for the first time since the end of June is below 30%, has already been recorded for a second consecutive month, while Vox and Vox are gaining strength on their right would achieve 14.9% of the votes and between 44 and 45 seats. Those of Santiago Abascal, however, have not yet reached the level of 15.1% that they reached in the November 2019 elections, but they are close to it.
The PSOE has remained at the 26% bar since the end of September, which would bring it 106 deputies, 14 less than at present. In the block on the left, the PSOE and its current government partner, Unidas Podemos, would barely equal the number of seats of the PP. Socialists and purples together would occupy 129 seats in Congress.
On this occasion, Unidas Podemos falls below the level of 10% in voting intention with a forecast of 9.9% and 23 deputies, which is almost three points and 12 seats less than what it obtained in the 2019 elections. This decrease, however, does not imply in parallel an increase in the prospects of the PSOE, but rather that the voters who lose their purple force settle in the block of the undecided or the abstentionists.
ERC would repeat with 13 deputies, EH Bildu with five and the PNV with six, while Más País would win four seats -now it has two-, Compromís could jump from one deputy to two, the BNG would retain its current seat and Cs, at best case, I would get one.
