It is common for governments to hide bad news and emphasize the good. This is intended to preserve the optimism of society and avoid the fear that contracts the economy. This was what José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero did in 2008 and 2009 with the help of his Minister of Economy Pedro Solbes. They denied the crisis until they could not hide it and the burst of the real estate bubble took everything away and plunged us into the worst crisis we have ever experienced.
We are not in the same situation. There is a soft landing of the expansionary cycle that occurred after the end of the pandemic. But it is reckless to cheat in solitaire. This is what President Pedro Sánchez and all of his ministers are doing day in and day out, with the Economy Minister, Carlos Body, at the helm. He maintains a line of continuity with his predecessor Nadia Calviño, whose tactic was “Spain is doing well” without a hint of self-criticism, and his successor is doing the same.
It is ridiculous that in the current situation the Executive is showing its chest. It is said that it is Spain and the countries of southern Europe (the so-called "pigs" in the previous crisis - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) that are preventing the European Union from entering a technical recession in the fourth quarter. quarter of 2023.
The data is unequivocal. From October to December, Portugal grew by 0.8%, Spain by 0.6%, Italy by 0.2%, compared to Germany that contracted by -0.3% and France that remained as it was. These last two countries represent half of the union's economy. Therefore, assuming that we are doing well and they are doing poorly is like looking at the speed of the tail cars when the locomotive has stopped.
When the internal composition of growth is analyzed, it is easy to realize that this growth in peripheral countries is largely due to the resources that come to us from Europe and the heavy indebtedness that is taking place with the approval of the European Commission and of the European Central Bank.
Last year, Spain spent 45 billion more than we collected, equivalent to a deficit of 3.8% of GDP that adds up to a debt close to 1.6 trillion euros. What is happening in Spain is happening in a good part of the southern countries that maintain purely extractive relations with the EU.
We are not growing, we are getting into debt, and this is not development but ruin. One of the traps we are making in solitaire is subsidizing prices. This will reduce inflation and place us at one of the lowest CPIs in the EU, but once the subsidies disappear they will rise again and we will now be above the average.
As Professor José María Herce states, consumption is growing thanks to the sharp rise in pensions (more than 12% in the last two years). But this expense is being paid with debt.
Economist José Carlos Díez explains that this 0.6% growth recorded in the last quarter of the year is basically due to public consumption, which grew 1.4%, and private consumption, part of which was paid with debt. On the contrary, investment falls to -2%. “It must be emphasized that investment is 5 points below the volume registered in 2019 and that in the last year productivity has fallen again by almost one point. In this situation, raising salaries and reducing precariousness is not possible.”
It is true that a lot of jobs have been created, but Minister Yolanda Díaz remains silent that our unemployment rate is 11.76% compared to 6.4% in the EU, almost double, and that Europeans are close to full employment while Spain We are still very far from achieving it.
