The prospect of Marine Le Pen or another far-right leader reaching the Elysée has long since ceased to be a very remote hypothesis. The National Regroupment (RN, former National Front) is experiencing constant progress in voting intentions, a trend that has been accentuated in recent weeks with the resurgence of the terrorist threat and amid the scuffle over the new immigration and asylum policy.
Three recent polls point in the same direction. The RN is in a position to easily win the European elections on June 9, and would also be the first party to hold early legislative elections today. The most outstanding thing is that the distance between the extreme right and Renaissance – Macron's party – is already considerable.
A survey published on Saturday by Le Monde on European women gave the RN 28% support, compared to 20% for Renacimiento. A study for Sud Radio gave 30% to the far-right formation and only 18% to the Macronists. Another poll, this time on hypothetical national legislation, placed the RN at 28% and Renacimiento at 19%.
European women tend to become a punishing vote for governments. In fact, RN already won the last ones, in 2019, but only with an advantage of 0.9 percentage points. This time the difference would be very substantial, a real debacle for the government ranks.
Part of the success of the RN is its young president and also MEP, Jordan Bardella, 28, who replaced Marine Le Pen at the head of the party in September 2021. Although no one doubts that she is the one who really rules over her protégé , the latter grows in political magnitude. According to the latest barometer from Paris Match magazine, Bardella has surpassed his godmother in the classification of political personalities most appreciated by the French.
Bardella is a young leader with great physical presence, tall, impeccably dressed and very telegenic. He speaks fluently and does not usually make mistakes in interviews. He also has the advantage of coming from a modest background, like many RN voters. Born into a family of Italian immigrants, Bardella grew up in a social housing complex in Drancy, a suburb on the northern outskirts of Paris. Another positive factor is that he is the boyfriend of Nolwenn Olivier, daughter of Marie-Caroline Le Pen, sister of Marine and daughter of patriarch Jean-Marie. The far-right party has always been, in part, a family business (the current mayor of Perpignan and vice president of the RN, Louis Aliot, was also Marine's partner for years), so Bardella's rise fits with the tradition of the home.
Bardella does not lack daring or self-confidence. Recently, when it was rumored again that Macron could dissolve the National Assembly to overcome the political blockade, the young president of the RN expressed his willingness to be prime minister – in case his party won an early election – and to cohabit with Macron in the Elysée, a complex situation that was already experienced during the presidencies of Mitterrand and Chirac.
In the 2022 elections, the RN achieved 88 deputies, a strength never seen before. From the first moment they adopted what has been called the “tie strategy.” They attend the Assembly in formal attire and avoid shouting and fighting as much as possible. They want to give an institutional image, of seriousness, of a party perfectly approved and prepared to come to power. They even allow themselves to vote alongside Renacimiento on some issues.
Unlike Renaissance, a superstructure weakly established in the territory and whose future after Macron is uncertain, the National Regrouping has been present in towns and small cities for more than half a century. Proof of this is that he managed to successfully face, last year, the challenge posed by another far-right offer, Reconquista – by the writer and polemicist Éric Zemmour –, which had great media coverage but completely failed in its bid to replace Le Pen's party.
In the current debate over the new immigration law, the RN is in a delicate position. It is an issue susceptible to populism and that gives it many votes. He is tempted to oppose the final proposal presented to the Assembly today, the result of an in extremis agreement between the Macronists and the Republicans (LR, traditional right). But he could also opt to give his favorable vote and show the country that he is a responsible political force with a sense of state. Based on the polls, the normalization of the French extreme right also depends on these decisions, although it seems that, whatever it does, the wind is blowing in its favor.
