Should humanity prepare for the end of fossil fuels? Will the climate negotiations being held in Dubai be the first time that the world reaches an agreement to signal the exit door for the energies that mark our civilization? The debates and the most relevant discussions of the Global Balance document revolve around this issue, the text that analyzes the degree of compliance with the Paris Agreement against warming and that should set the guidelines for future action. The questions do not yet have a clear answer, but what is certain is that for now “the end of the reign” of fuels is opening two very clear trenches.
The United States special envoy for Climate Change, John Kerry, spoke about this issue yesterday, stating that his country advocates a gradual elimination of fossil fuels from its energy system to achieve the goal of a balance of net zero emissions for 2050. He also said that the final agreement of the Dubai summit must include the objective of tripling the capacity of renewable energies and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, within its climate strategy.
"Science says we have to reduce emissions. We think that means that if you are going to reach the goal of net zero emissions by 2050, you have to phase out (fossil fuels), there is no other way," he said.
Kerry spoke with these words to refer to the central issue that is yet to be clarified at COP28: The burning of fossil fuels for energy uses is the main cause of climate change and its greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for 80% of warming.
Until now, throughout 30 years of negotiations of the Climate Change Agreement, this thorny issue had been ignored. No matter how baroque the formula seemed, there was talk of "reducing emissions" or "decarbonization." Mentioning "fossil energies" was taboo.
On the other hand, at the Glasgow conference (COP26), a small step was taken in this direction, when a modest agreement was reached to reduce the use of coal: but without “touching” gas or oil.
Now, however, at the Dubai summit more than 100 countries are pushing for a pact on the “phasing out of fossil fuels,” a proposal that has divided countries into opposing camps.
At this point two nuances are appropriate. 1) that we are not talking about "eliminating them overnight." The proposals on the table do not entail immediate elimination, since a date does not appear on the calendar. The importance of the mention is that it would admit what these deals implicitly entailed: the need to address the main source of warming.
And 2) the proposals for the gradual or gradual elimination of fossil fuels would allow technologies with capture and storage of CO2, so that when they are emitted they can be captured so as not to aggravate warming (see attached information).
The EU27, Norway, the United States and Canada promote this position while the small islands of vulnerable countries, some African nations, such as Kenya or Somalia. as well as Latin American countries (Chile or Colombia) also support it.
The EU27, Norway, the United States and Canada promote this position while the small islands of vulnerable countries, some African nations, such as Kenya or Somalia. as well as Latin American countries (Chile or Colombia) also support it.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, through its Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has made it abundantly clear that his country did not “at all” agree with these ideas.
The president of the conference, Sultan Ahmed al Jaber, has expressed himself ambiguously on the matter. “The elimination or elimination of fossil fuels is inevitable,” said who is also the chief executive of Adnoc, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates.
For its part, China has been a country traditionally opposed to this idea, but it remains to be seen if its position has changed or if it has been a clue that for the first time it has spoken of reducing its emissions in the electricity sector, a fact that occurred in the recent conversations between its president, Xi, and the American president, Joe Biden, in California.
India is another tough nut to crack, as are other Arab countries, which have simply asked for the entire paragraph referring to energy to be deleted from the second draft agreement.
Russia, which has historically been reluctant to support climate action, has demanded that gas be considered a “transitional energy” although the UAE negotiating team, cited by the BBC, sees it as feasible to “dissuade” them from supporting the pact.
The two drafts of the Global Balance that have been handled so far raise various options on this issue (progressive elimination, reduction, not mentioning...), and they even talk about the objective of achieving “an orderly and fair exit from fossil energies.” ”, a formulation that prefigures an eventual consensus although countries should be given room.
Saudi wants the agreement to include a mention to favor fossil fuels but with the aim of giving prestige to carbon capture and storage technology. On the other hand, both the US and the EU agree that these technologies should only serve sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as steel, cement and aluminum.
Kerry reiterated that his “north star” is to achieve an agreement consistent with the goal of stopping warming below 1.5ºC (compared to the pre-industrial era), which means a 43% cut by 2030 compared to 2019. .
The EU, for its part, wants “this COP to mark the beginning of the end of fossil fuels,” as repeated by the commissioner in charge of climate, Wopte Hoeksstra.
Spain's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, who currently holds the presidency of the European Union, said the European bloc wants to ensure that "the European Union facilitates what [COP28 President Sultan al Yaber] said he wanted to achieve at this very precise moment: a historic turning point in this very critical decade." Ribera said he hoped the COP president would be more than "an honest broker." "We expect leadership" to achieve an ambitious agreement , said.
Some representatives of African nations have said they could support a gradual exit deal if rich countries, which have long produced and used fossil fuels, agree to leave first, Reuters reports.
"Telling Uganda to stop using fossil fuels is really an insult. It's like telling Uganda to stay in poverty," said Ugandan Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa. Uganda, Mozambique and other countries on the continent with insufficient access to electricity plan to develop or expand their oil and gas production. Uganda began drilling its first production well this year.
Nankabirwa noted that the country could accept a long-term phase-out, if it made clear that developing nations can exploit their resources in the short term, while long-time wealthy producers give up first.
"First in, first out, and we'll be happy to be the last to abandon fossil fuels," he said, Reuters reports.
Diplomats and observers have been pointing out that a group of countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, have consistently raised the issue of "equity" in these talks to emphasize the historically high contribution of rich industrialized nations to climate change. However, some said they doubted these nations would support a phase-out, even if the issue of equity was addressed.
However, some said they doubted these nations would support a phase-out, even if the issue of equity was addressed.
