One lime and one sand. Although the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has improved its growth forecast for Spain this year by three tenths, to 4.4%, it is more pessimistic in its forecast for 2023. The organization considers that the Spanish economy will expand by 1.5%, which represents a cut of seven tenths compared to its previous revision.
Regarding inflation, he estimates that the country will close the year with a 9.1% increase in prices, one point more than last June's forecast. And it also worsens its forecast for 2023, the year in which it envisions that inflation will stand at 5%, two tenths more.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation considers that the figures published today by the OECD confirm "the strong growth of the Spanish economy" since, after its upward revision for this year, "it will exceed the world growth average of the G20 and the euro zone". Likewise, the detailed analysis of the data shows that Spain registers the highest increase in gross domestic product -of 1.5%- by 2023 among the four large economies of the eurozone.
Of this group, Germany is the one that comes out the worst since the agency has revised its previous estimate down 2.4 points and forecasts that the country will enter a recession as its GDP falls to -0.7%. For its part, France will grow by 0.6%, eight tenths less, the same cut applied to Italy, whose advance would be only 0.4%.
As for the forecasts for the global economy, the OECD maintains its forecast for global GDP growth at 3% for this year, although it lowers it six tenths for the coming year, to 2.2%. Likewise, the organization has lowered its growth estimates for Germany by seven tenths (1.2%), two tenths for the United Kingdom (3.4%) and one tenth for the United States (1.5%). In contrast, he sees the Italian and French economies expanding this year more than expected. In the first case, nine tenths more, up to 3.4%; and in the second, two tenths, up to 2.6%.
"The global economy has lost momentum in the face of the illegal, unjustifiable and unprovoked war against Ukraine. GDP growth has stalled in many countries and economic indicators point to a widespread slowdown," said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. The agency notes that the conflict in Ukraine has further raised energy prices, especially in Europe, which has aggravated inflationary pressures at a time when prices were already rising as a result of the pandemic. In this sense, it raises the inflation forecast for the G20 countries for this year by six tenths, up to 8.2%, while for 2023 they have stood at 6.6%, three tenths more.
