With more questions than certainties, the law that will amnesty the process has already begun its political journey, with the agreement of the PSOE with the independence parties. For legal purposes, the amnesty will mean the criminal oblivion of crimes – including those not tried – and will erase the criminal records of those affected. But the amnesty will also have political effects. The new left-wing government will have to establish four-handed pacts with Catalan and Basque nationalism. It is an opportunity for dialogue in plural Spain, which incorporates an actor like Junts to the board of Spanish politics, on which ERC already plays, and can allow for a solution to the Catalan conflict. Opposite, a strong right in parliamentary terms will wage a merciless opposition. A period with opportunities opens, certainly not without risks.
To begin with, a first effect of the amnesty has been the protests this week, with altercations in Madrid. Complicated months are coming during the processing of the law. “The amnesty is going to generate great social polarization, strong protests. But what generates the tension, the disagreement over the amnesty or the fact that the right has to accept that it is not going to govern and the second one, the PSOE, will do so, and with pacts of this type?”, says political scientist Pablo Simón.
As in all political agreements, there is a public part, along with commitments that have not been put in writing and that will be revealed. “There may be more concessions. And the disagreements have also been agreed upon so that they do not represent a rupture, because there will be many torpedoes, in the street, politicians and in the courts, and the PSOE needs time to be forgiven for this and compensation for when it returns to the polls," he points out.
Simón does admit that there could be a detente in sectors of the independence movement, which had already started with ERC. “But political operators have to change. The process has been a crusher of elites, rulers who made decisions in contexts of great uncertainty and electricity. We need new cadres, who enter with new coordinates and can reduce the tension that comes with always returning to 2017,” he emphasizes.
In the short term, the legislature will go through times of great stress. Raimon Obiols, who was first secretary of the PSC, observes with concern the strategy of the right and the extreme right, along a line of “violent and Cainite nationalist exasperation.” They fear, he points out, losing the last opportunity to destabilize the country after seeing that the pardons had a positive effect. Given the difficulties of the PP in building a solvent opposition in Congress, he indicates, he is already transferring the pressure to the streets and with the judges.
Despite this threat, Obiols considers that the processists “are entering the path of the constitutional framework” which can give stability to the progressive majority in the legislature. Regarding the impact of the amnesty law in Catalonia, he considers that speaking that the PSC could take its toll is an “ancient thesis that comes from the Pleistocene.”
There are several stories to analyze the impact of the amnesty, says Margarita León, professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), but she doubts that it can be read as a commitment to coexistence. The agreement has a logic of power and has restored Carles Puigdemont and Junts, with little electoral support, she points out, at a point where they were not, emerging victorious in the struggle with ERC. This political scientist does not believe that Junts has any intention of resolving the political conflict.
Instead, he observes that the debate on the amnesty “nourishes and rescues the extreme right” which can now delve “into an already very polarized map. “If this move doesn't go well, the price that can be paid is very high,” he warns.
Former deputy and member of the ERC national council Joan Tardà is more optimistic. “Achieving a negotiation scenario will not be easy, it will depend on the correlation of forces and will require time, but the amnesty means making a reset and opens a period in which the parties, if not as equals, can at least begin the construction of a shared solution –he says–. What will it be? "We don't know, we have to build it." The objective is that there are no crossed vetoes, he highlights.
Regarding the right-wing opposition front and part of the judiciary, the veteran ERC politician points out that “it will be hard, but it has a positive derivative and that is that it blows up the bridges of the PSOE to back down because it can only move forward with its proposals.” If he surrenders, he will have to spend eight years in the opposition, he predicts.
And he calls on Junts not to waste the situation left by 23-J. “These elections were our turn and we are more decisive than in other moments of greater electoral weight. It would be irresponsible not to take advantage of it,” he warns.
With an eye on Catalonia, Astrid Barrio, professor of Political Science at the University of Valencia (UV), points out that the PSC, together with En Comú Podem, as a reference for the third way in Catalonia has been a refuge for moderate Catalans who do not They agreed with the process. Now, she notes, they may feel betrayed. It is evident that the conflict must be resolved, she indicates, the question is whether the way the amnesty law is drafted, blaming the judiciary, is the best way forward.
In a Spanish key, Barrio points out that the tension generated by the PP is mainly due to the fact that it is the first time in Spain – apart from the motion of censure – that the winner of the elections does not form a government, and therefore creates a tough opposition. which anticipates a tense and unproductive legislature in public policy.
The amnesty will focus political and media attention and its subsequent application will also be closely observed. One of the beneficiaries of the law will be the political scientist Jordi Matas Dalmases, who chaired the Electoral Commission for the 1-O referendum, a supervisory body with functions similar to an electoral board. Tried and acquitted, he is once again awaiting trial after an appeal from the Prosecutor's Office. Matas, professor of Political Science at the University of Barcelona (UB), will be free from the judicial slab with the amnesty, but is skeptical about the effects on the solution of the political conflict.
Matas does admit that the amnesty changes the dynamics of Pedro Sánchez's investiture because it adds the vote of Junts, but nothing more. “The conflict in the Catalonia-Spain relationship will persist and so will the exceptional situation, although both parties agree to negotiate. It will be like this until there is a solution, and this pact does not solve anything,” he warns.
He is also cautious regarding the evolution that the amnesty will have for practical purposes. “We will see how it is applied, if it affects all the cases it is supposed to include, and we will also see the role of the judges. It is a question not only because of the law itself and the dose of ambiguity it will contain, but also because of the absolute legal uncertainty that exists in Spain. You cannot trust any judicial authority, we have seen it in the last six years,” he says.
There are many questions surrounding the amnesty law. Some will begin to get answers in the coming weeks, when the text is known and the parliamentary process begins, which will go hand in hand with other negotiations, economic and social, that will involve new agreements and transfers. A high-voltage legislature is anticipated
