“A spectacular turnaround in favor of the PSOE is not taking place; what we are seeing in the polls is a change in trend. Right now the right is not overwhelming and would not win a majority in a general election. This is the diagnosis of a veteran electoral analyst who has been filtering the CIS data for years, without losing sight of the most credible private polls, in a country where between three and five electoral polls are published every week. A delirious avalanche.
The October barometer of the CIS placed the PSOE four points ahead of the Popular Party. That data must be taken with tweezers. The CIS surveys are good, they are well done, but their vote projections have shown flaws. Two things are happening at the same time: the great expectations raised six months ago by Alberto Núñez Feijóo have begun to cool down and Pedro Sánchez's good reputation in Europe is beginning to pay off to the extent that society is realizing that today what is important it is decided outside. International politics presides over our days and Sánchez knows how to move in that area. The man of the too long and syrupy sermons in times of epidemic now appears as a more practical and experienced politician. There is a new dialectic between idea and action. It is negotiated in Brussels, decisions are made and inflation falls in Spain more than in other countries.
A gust of hot air pushed Núñez Feijóo up after Pablo Casado's beheading. In July, the PP-Vox sum seemed capable of devastating.
A student at the Romay Beccaría school, an academy presided over by that conservative Galician astuteness that recommends dry blows and little action, Feijóo believed the analysts who drew him an amortized president of the Government. carbonized. It only remained to wait for the recession, since the expectations for the winter of 2023 were apocalyptic.
Sánchez reacted, combining European activism with a justicialist discourse on those above and those below. Through taxes, those at the top must help prevent the war in Ukraine from turning into hell for those at the bottom. The combination of both strategies seems to be helping the left, at the moment. Something has happened in social perception. And winter is slow in coming.
Feijóo was not warned of this narrative change. He opted for a speech to fixed gear on the tax cut, without contributing anything else to the character. Accustomed to playing on the Breogán de Lugo pitch, he seems uncomfortable on the Real Madrid pitch. He is not enthusiastic about what he sees in the capital.
He is an intelligent man and is not unaware of the importance of the European stage. He wanted to close the pact on the General Council of the Judiciary because that step could strengthen him in Brussels. Agreement on the CGPJ to remain as champions before the European Commission and warning from the European Central Bank to Sánchez about the banking tax. That was the November movement, devised with the help of Esteban González Pons and Luis de Guindos. Now we can see it more clearly.
The Madrid right did not accept the move. There is a lot of gibberish around Isabel Díaz Ayuso. Madrid's right wing likes perreo, a sensual dance that takes on a very intense meaning on stages of power. We command and provoke: reinforced hegemony.
When he saw himself dogged by Federico Jiménez Losantos and reprimanded by the newspaper El Mundo (100% Italian property), Núñez Feijóo's legs trembled. His departure from him in the judicial pact has broken down the character. The aridity of his words after the removal of the remains of General Queipo de Llano from the Basilica of La Macarena in Seville show a man now obsessed with a possible rise of Vox.
There is no spectacular rollover. There is a change in trend due to the European factor, due to the lateness of winter and due to the perreo of the federicos. The coming months are going to be very difficult. Nothing is final.
