The UN climate summit in Dubai enters what in theory should have been the closing day in an atmosphere of maximum division and with little hope of agreement, given the very distant positions between the various groups of countries. The draft presented by the COP presidency on Monday was received with enormous division by the delegations and raised a hornet's nest of contrary reactions. The text does not respond at all to what developed countries had envisioned, since it completely discards the proposal for a “progressive elimination” of fossil fuels. Alternatively, it proposes a set of options that countries can embrace, among which stands out "reducing the production and consumption" of these fossil energies to achieve a net zero emissions balance by 2050.
It is difficult to make predictions about what may happen from now on, without ruling out an ending with disagreement, which could be interpreted as a great success for Saudi Arabia, OPEC and other oil countries, which have been opposing it since the first moment to a pact, even if it was weak, that could be detrimental to fossil energy. His influence is very detectable in the draft presented by Sultan al Yaber, president of the COP and top manager of his country's large oil company (Adnoc).
COP28 was due to close around noon after almost two weeks of speeches, proclamations, demonstrations and long negotiations. But these conversations usually last longer than planned. And now there is a long day ahead in which the parties will try to avoid the breakup.
For the delegations, returning home without an agreement would be a very painful renunciation of standing up with international political actions to what could be the last attempt to confront the effects of warming with solutions in line with what science demands.
Reactions against the proposal come from numerous delegations. Tina Stege, a delegate from the Marshall Islands, ridiculed the document as “a meaningless wish list” that “questions the science” and said it does not address the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5ºC to avoid global warming. worst effects of climate change.
The Earth is on track to break the record for its hottest year, which heralds a worsening of the most extreme climatic conditions and effects with a greater impact on people's health and lives. "There is no justice with an outcome of this COP that dooms the future of my country," Stege said. The Marshall Islands are one of many island nations most at risk from rising sea levels.
Europeans also pushed for a stronger document. With the options on the table for now, "I find it difficult to reach an agreement," said the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, who, however, clarified that there are hours "and even days" left to try to close a pact, which announces a marathon extension of negotiation.
"We believe that this text is insufficient and there are elements that are unacceptable. Although it has positive points, it has a major flaw in the management of energy messages in this critical decade," said the minister, who acts on behalf of the European Council, now under the tutelage of the Spanish presidency.
“It is difficult to reach a result here before noon (Tuesday),” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who stated: “This is not a problem for the European delegation. We have time and we are prepared to stay a little further".
For many countries, the draft agreement lacks ambition and does not address the complete elimination of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), whose gases are mainly responsible for global warming. Another of the shortcomings they observe is that it does not offer a clear message, which is precisely what the EU has been demanding, so that the energy sector can plan its future synchronizing it with the reduction of emissions that are needed to avoid global warming. above 1.5ºC.
The text does not mention oil or gas, and refers twice to coal, for which a “rapid reduction” is requested for its facilities without reducing emissions (unabated: for those that lack technologies to mitigate gases). The entire text is dotted with references to CO2 capture and storage systems, formulas not implemented on a large scale, expensive and of questionable effectiveness but which are the great argument-alibi of the oil nations to say that there is no reason give up fossil fuels, since it is technically possible to neutralize their emissions.
Bangladesh climate envoy Saber Chowdhury said a revised text will be presented this Tuesday morning that will take into account feedback from the many participants. A second draft will therefore be negotiated, although it remains to be seen to what extent it will be improved.
The final decisions of the COPs must be by consensus; that is, by the unanimity of all the delegations, which complicates the entire process of adopting agreements.
The NGOs feared, as has been the case, that possible objections from major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, would dilute the text. OPEC's secretary general wrote to member countries last week urging them to block any reference to phasing out or phasing out fossil fuels.
Some developing nations have also resisted a phase-out of fossil fuels, arguing that it would be unfair for rich nations, after centuries of using and benefiting from coal, oil and gas, to deny them the same. . Botswana's Environment Minister Philda Nani Kereng said it is important that any agreement is not made to the detriment of “the development of our people,” she said.
China and the United States, the world's two largest sources of planet-warming emissions, spoke out against the draft text.
Zhao Yingmin, China's vice minister of ecology and environment, admitted that "the draft does not address the concerns of developing countries on some key issues" and, in particular, the idea that greenhouse gas emissions must reach their limit. peak in 2025.
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the language on fossil fuels in the text “does not meet the test” of keeping 1.5 alive. "I, like most of you here, refuse to be part of a sham" of not phasing out fossil fuels, Kerry said. "This is a war for survival."
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber told a plenary session on Monday that “the time to decide is now.” “We still need to close many gaps. "We have no time to waste," he stated. On that point, critics agreed.
"COP28 is now on the brink of complete failure," former US Vice President and climate activist Al Gore posted on X (formerly Twitter). "The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this slavish draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word... It is deeply offensive to everyone who has taken this process seriously."
