The current president of the Junta de Andalucía and PP candidate for re-election, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, will clearly win the next elections to the Andalusian Parliament, according to the flash survey published on Monday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), which Unlike the one published on June 2, it does not attribute seats and gives an estimate of the vote with very wide ranges that even prevent assessing the evolution of the vote during the campaign compared to the first poll.
Thus, the PP would prevail with a vote estimate of between 35.2 and 38.4%, up to almost three points more (35.6%) than those that the CIS gave it in the June 2 poll in the upper part of the bracket that gave him between 47 and 49 deputies, between 6 and 8 deputies of the absolute majority, set in the Andalusian Parliament at 55 seats, which would allow Moreno to govern outside of Vox.
The PSOE of Juan Espadas would obtain between 23.8 and 26.6%, clearly below the results obtained in 2018 with Susana Díaz, who touched 28% of the votes and won 33 seats although she could not govern . On June 2, the CIS gave Espadas 25.2% of the votes and between 32 and 36 seats, so that he could lose up to 1.4 points compared to then.
Vox, with Macarena Olona in the lead, would be the third political force in the Andalusian Parliament with between 13.6 and 15.8%. In the previous poll Vox obtained between 17 and 21 deputies with 15.3% of the votes.
In the fight to the left of the PSOE, the Por Andalucía coalition led by Inmaculada Nieto would prevail with a range of between 9.4 and 11.4% over Teresa Rodríguez's Adelante Andalucía, which would win between 4.5 and 5.9% of the votes.
For its part, Ciudadanos, which repeats with Juan Marín, would be moving between 3.3 and 4.5% in estimated votes to try to save its presence in the Andalusian Chamber. In the poll of June 2, the CIS kept them in Parliament with between 1 and 3 seats with 4.1% of the estimated vote.
On the last day of the campaign in which electoral polls can be published, according to the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (Loreg), El País/La Ser, ABC and El Confidencial have published polls that leave the popular candidate between two and seven seats of the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. But in all of them two data stand out that seem unbreakable. The PP would surpass the sum of all the leftists together and Ciudadanos would disappear from the Parliament swallowed up by the PP.