The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, would be in a position to clearly impose himself in general elections on the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, if general elections were held today, according to the forecast of the October barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) disclosed this Monday and whose field work coincided with the presentation of the budgets for 2023 and was done in the midst of the negotiation for the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) with the possibility of an agreement.
The socialist leader would prevail over the head of the main opposition party by four percentage points in estimated votes, according to the body led by socialist José Félix Tezanos, who in September gave Sánchez an advantage of only 0.7 points.
The October poll gives 32.7% of the votes to the PSOE, 3.5 points more than in September and 4.5 points more than in the 2019 elections. The good forecasts for the Socialists are not to the detriment of the PP nor from the minor partner of the coalition, United We Can, since both remain more or less stable, but from Vox.
The Feijóo effect, according to the CIS, would act not so much as a uniter of the votes of the center but of the right, so that while the Galician leader would even improve the results obtained by Pablo Casado in 2019 by 7.7 points and by two tenths According to the September estimate, those of Abascal would lose practically half of the support they achieved in the last general elections, a trend that was already evident in the latest polls. Specifically, Vox would remain in fourth position with 8.8% of the support, 6.4 points less than in 2019 and one and a half points less than the September estimate.
However, Feijóo, who managed to take the lead in July and lost the privileged position in September, would not be able to capitalize on all the losses of the extreme right since he would only improve the vote estimate of last month by two tenths.
Another piece of data from the survey is the stability of United We Can despite its lack of definition as an electoral brand, pending the confirmation of the Sumar movement promoted by the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz. The purples would remain as the third force in Congress with a vote estimate of 12.7%, one tenth less compared to the previous work of the CIS and only three tenths below the current figures. In contrast, the Más País/Compromís coalition seems to be diluted by staying, according to the CIS, with a pyrrhic 1.1% of the votes, when in 2019 it obtained 2.3.
In Catalonia, coinciding with the crisis that ended with the departure of Junts from the Govern de Pere Aragonès, the barometer gives a slight improvement of one tenth to the formation of Laura Borràs compared to the previous survey, but still 0.7 points from the results of 2019. For their part, the Republicans would lose three tenths in relation to September but one and a half points compared to the last elections.
Regarding political leaders, Pedro Sánchez slightly improves his assessment compared to the September barometer, with 4.47, and once again surpasses Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who obtains 4.42, far from the 4.89 he reached in July ( in the latest polls he was ahead of Sánchez). Even so, the best rated is still Yolanda Díaz with 4.71. Íñigo Errejón and Inés Arrimadas get a lower rating (3.89 and 3.36, respectively), while the worst rated is Santiago Abascal with an average of 2.65.
Likewise, 22.9% of those surveyed prefer a presidency of Pedro Sánchez (the percentage increases slightly compared to the latest barometers), while 17.4% favor Núñez Feijóo and 9.7% favor Díaz.
In relation to the confidence generated by the leaders, Sánchez is also the one who comes out rather unemployed and improves his numbers, with between two and three points more than the percentages of the latest polls. According to the CIS, 31.5% of citizens have "quite a lot" or "a lot" of confidence in the current Prime Minister, while 29.2% affirm that it is the leader of the opposition who inspires them the most confidence. The popular leader also receives a higher level of confidence than in September (he was at 28.4%), but it is far from the 34.5% before the summer.
On the other hand, 67% of those asked by the CIS have "little" or "no" confidence in Pedro Sánchez, so that the animosity towards him decreases compared to September (68.5%) and July (69.4%) . The results confirm the opposite trend of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with 68.4% of respondents with low confidence, a percentage that grows compared to the last two barometers (60.8% and 67.7%).
