“The real campaign begins now.” The blunt phrase was uttered by the PNV candidate for lehendakari, Imanol Pradales, on Friday at an event in Álava and, although it has a lot of motivational harangue aimed at militancy, it coincides with a vision shared by most analysts. The first half of the campaign has had a very low profile, the percentage of undecided people is high and the battle between the PNV and EH Bildu, marked by unprecedented equality, will be decided in the coming days.
At this moment, the minute and result of the campaign is marked by the surveys, which, in addition to guiding the vote – in some cases – serve to read trends. In this sense, the latest CIS survey has given Bildu reasons for optimism and the PNV reasons to be moderately concerned.
The CIS estimates, for the first time, a victory for Bildu in percentage of the vote which, if confirmed, would surely also imply a victory in seats. This survey, whose field work was carried out between April 1 and 8 and with 4,000 interviews, also reflects a disturbing trend for the Jeltzales, since the organization itself had given a victory to the PNV just nine days before.
On the other hand, based on the microdata, most indicators would justify Bildu's upward outlook, in the opinion of Ainara Villaño, a Silvan political scientist.
Valiño appreciates a second issue in this microdata that would indicate that the campaign is going better for Bildu, at least for the moment: “One of the great victories of a campaign is getting the issues right and setting them, it is something that any strategist knows. According to the CIS, Bildu surpasses the PNV in this area; That is to say, the population, especially young people, perceive that the party that speaks about the issues that interest them is Bildu. The coalition is interested in talking about Osakidetza (Basque Health System) and housing, because it opposes the Government. And he is achieving it.”
If the previous CIS poll was a relief for the PNV, the mood in the jeltzales ranks is currently one of some concern. And not just because of the survey. At Bildu, meanwhile, prudence prevails, an extreme zeal aimed at avoiding shocks in the last days of the campaign. Things are going well for them, and they do not want to risk or expose their candidate too much.
At this point in the campaign, it is the PNV that has the most reasons to take risks in order to activate its electorate. And there the Jeltzales trust in the express campaign that began this weekend, after the celebrations in Bizkaia linked to Athletic's cup victory, the interruption of the campaign due to the death of Lehendakari Ardanza and, before that, the influence of the period vacation.
The percentage of undecided people continues to be higher than usual at this point in the campaign (according to the CIS, it is around 20%, although in other surveys it is higher) and almost 30% of the population says that they decide their vote throughout of the last week of the campaign or at the time of going to vote. The lack of electoral tension may have its days numbered.
Furthermore, this Tuesday the second ETB debate will take place, this time in Spanish, after Wednesday's interesting debate on ETB-1, in Basque. “It feels like people are going to start getting active this weekend, thinking that it's time to vote next time. This can lead voters to follow the parties' proposals more closely, the topics they raise, something that I find very interesting, or the debate itself, which can be decisive," adds Valiño. That is to say, there is a game and practically everything is yet to be decided.
On the other hand, the fight between the PNV and Bildu being very important, the victory in seats on election night - which could imply a historic symbolic victory for the nationalist coalition - on the night of the 21st we will have to look further afield. In these elections there are two other fundamental unknowns, even more important: who will govern and how they will govern (with a majority or not).
There, Pradales appears better positioned, given that the PSE, which will have the key to governability, has already clarified that it will not make Otxandiano lehendakari. The doubt, therefore, is rather in the how. An absolute majority for the PNV and the PSE would allow them to govern with ease, even if the Jeltzales suffered the setback of Bildu winning in seats. However, a minority government between Jeltzales and socialists would mean tremendous wear and tear for both, especially for the PNV, which would have to look to the PP to guarantee governability.
Another issue to be resolved on Sunday will be the result of the socialists. It is not the same to achieve the 12 seats that some polls give them than to stay at their current 10, or even lose one, something that could leave the PNV-PSE group without a majority. In any case, its strategic third place is not in question.
Another unknown is the electoral performance of the PP, which is struggling between remaining on its electoral ground, around six seats, or beginning to take off. The growing bipartisan perspective of Basque politics does not favor him, since the anti-Bildu vote may be concentrated in the PNV.
Finally, it remains to be seen how the Podemos-Sumar battle turns out, a fratricidal battle in which they fight against the real possibility of being left out of Parliament. These unknowns will be decided in this decisive week.
