Infinite triangles can be formed, but their sides and angles must comply with some rules to construct it. Something similar has happened with governability in Spain since the absolute majorities disappeared. Catalan nationalism, now pro-independence, is one of the vertices. In his day the PP was able to get closer to him and governed. Today, only the PSOE is in a position to try. The angle that Carles Puigdemont now occupies tests the socialist side. How far is he willing to stretch it? If he achieves it, can there be a historic pact as the Junts leader claims?
The amnesty is assumed by the Moncloa. Another issue is agreeing on its scope, the calendar and getting it through the sieve of the Constitutional Court. Then the obstacles will continue: not only will the judges have a role in its application, but the right will mobilize in the streets against the measure, unlike what happened with the pardons. We must also take into account the internal resistance that Pedro Sánchez may encounter, although so far only the usual critical voices have emerged.
But the amnesty is only the most striking condition of the investiture. The agreement may get bogged down in another requirement: mediation. Puigdemont spoke of implementing “a mediation and verification mechanism.” He did not specify if he was referring to any person or international entity, but that is what he has in mind and what he is looking for. Moncloa is very reluctant to this idea and considers that the ambiguity of the former president allows this condition to be limited to “a monitoring commission”, something that is too similar to the dialogue table that Sánchez agreed with ERC and that Junts rejects outright.
Indeed, mediation was already a source of controversy with the independentists when Junts and ERC governed Catalonia. The Republicans managed to get the then Vice President Carmen Calvo to accept the idea of a “rapporteur” who would take note of the course of the negotiations. It was a horrible week for Calvo, who first had to emphasize that she would not be international and then she had to accept that Sánchez would disavow her. The rectification came two days before the demonstration of the right (PP, Ciudadanos and Vox) in the Plaza de Colón and four days before the debate on budgets that ERC rejected. Sánchez took advantage of the Colón fiasco to advance elections. He and ERC decided to forget about the matter.
The rapporteur caused hives within the PSOE. Pardons were also difficult. But ERC agreed to some gestures to facilitate progress. Oriol Junqueras expressed on several occasions that he ruled out the unilateral route to achieve independence and that he advocated an agreed referendum. Puigdemont also referred to the latter but maintained that he will always defend unilateralism if an agreement is not reached for the Catalans to vote on independence. And an amnesty will not only mean that Puigdemont can return to Spain without being tried, but also that he can run in Catalan elections, for example, without having shown the slightest indication of ruling out something similar to the 2017 crisis. This scenario provokes strong misgivings in many socialist positions and voters.
Among the leaders of the PSOE it has been assumed that the investiture agreement will take its toll, although they are convinced that the blood will not reach the river because "Spanish society is prepared" to take the step. At the Moncloa they point out that it is not necessary for Puigdemont to make a statement to the effect that "they will not do it again", since, in that case, article 155 of the Constitution would be resorted to again, although the article would no longer be applicable. crime of sedition, which was what led them to prison. “The PP made a tax amnesty and that doesn't mean anyone thinks that from then on it can defraud the Treasury,” says a senior socialist official. In principle, he is not concerned that Junts makes the speech that the amnesty, by erasing the crimes, means that the State assumes “that it was wrong” when applying criminal law.
Puigdemont's third condition for the investiture is, in theory, the easiest, since it involves recognizing him as an interlocutor and removing him from political ostracism. It can be a gesture, a photo... Although in theory it is a step in that direction, in Moncloa it has felt very bad that the vice president Yolanda Díaz met with the former president in Brussels because it takes place without an agreement yet being reached. no agreement. "She has given him a free victory," she points out.
And what will happen beyond the investiture if it goes ahead? Puigdemont demands to open a negotiation on a self-determination referendum in parallel to the conversations on competence and financial issues. For the former president, if all this culminates successfully, it will be the most important agreement between the State and Catalonia since 1714, a “historic pact.” But does Puigdemont, with seven deputies in Congress and the fourth political force in Catalonia in the last elections, have enough strength to force such a scenario even though Sánchez needs his votes?
The PSOE is not willing to address a referendum. Yes, it plans to negotiate the new regional financing with all the communities. This will probably be the thorniest issue that Sánchez intends to address in this term if he is elected president. The idea has been established in Moncloa that the new legislature should not be like the previous one, in which more than 200 laws were approved, with the consequent negotiations and friction between government partners and parliamentary allies. The justification is that now it will be more difficult to reconcile left-wing and right-wing parties such as the PNV with Bildu or Junts with ERC. Sánchez wants a more peaceful legislature.
For the socialists, the important thing is that Junts definitively enters the game of parliamentary politics in Madrid and Catalonia. Nor is the PSC in the process of addressing a referendum, not even a statutory reform or similar. They hope to negotiate powers or resources for Catalonia, but not go further if it is not with the PP contest "because the same cannot happen as with the Statute", when the popular took it to the Constitutional and launched a campaign against it.
But the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo does not seem in a position to take such a step, despite the references this week to the need for the two big parties to seek "a fit for Catalonia" in Spain. Every time the popular leader has ventured into building bridges with Catalan nationalism, he has been sheared in his own party. The resistance from the Madrid political and media right has forced him to rectify. It happens from the first day that Feijóo stepped foot in Barcelona as leader of the PP, when he spoke in the Circle of Economy of the "Catalan nationality".
These are not the protests of the president of the Catalan PP, Alejandro Fernández, who does not have enough strength to bend the line marked by Génova Street. The brakes come from Madrid. Feijóo intends to leave the corner that he shares with Vox to dialogue with other parties, especially the PNV, but each step is answered internally. His entourage hopes to be strengthened with the support of the new regional presidents of the party, when they manage to “eat” Vox. They hope that they will support him and recognize that he has been an electoral victim of the agreements with the extreme right that have made it easier for them to govern.
Feijóo does not now have the authority to open a reflection on Catalonia different from the position maintained until now. Which brings us back to whether Sánchez's investiture attempt will be viable or not.
