Saudi Arabia is being singled out as the country that is blocking the climate summit the most. There have been few statements from its delegates on the central axis of the discussions; that is, the gradual elimination of fossil fuels; but his opinion has been crystal clear. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said last week that the kingdom will not accept a deal that calls for phasing out fossil fuels.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, leads the position of countries that insist that the COP28 conference in Dubai should focus solely on reducing emissions but without reference to a shift away from fossil fuels that are responsible for global warming. planet.
In parallel, OPEC urged member countries in a letter last week to reject any agreement that aims to corner fossil fuels. It must be taken into account that any agreement at the COP must be agreed unanimously.
The Saudi line in the negotiations has been to complain: "We have raised our constant concerns about attempts to attack energy sources instead of emissions," say sources in his delegation. In other words, fossil fuels are fine; The problem is CO2 emissions, which can be captured and stored, Saudi spokespersons say.
“We have to gradually eliminate fossil fuels, period,” replies Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action, who has been emphasizing that CO2 capture and storage technologies should only serve as an exception for certain sectors that cannot be decarbonized (steel, cement).
The North American press has revealed the Saudi tactics in the negotiations, which “include inserting into the draft agreements words that other countries consider poison pills; delaying any provision aimed at helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate change and refusing to sit down with negotiators pushing for a phase-out of fossil fuels,” the New York Times reported on Sunday.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres did not name Saudi Arabia in calling on nations to join an ambitious deal, but his position can be read between the lines. “Ministers and negotiators must move beyond arbitrary red lines, entrenched positions and blocking tactics. “It is essential to recognize the need to phase out all fossil fuels.”
UN climate chief Simon Stiell had similar words: “Let's remove unnecessary tactical blockades; “There have been many along this journey.” Earlier in the week, the Saudi energy minister refused even to make a weaker call to “phase down” fossil fuels. “Absolutely not,” he said.
A report from the Climate Social Science Network, published just before COP28, exposes the long history of Saudi obstructionism. “The fossil fuel giant has a 30-year history of obstruction and delay, protecting its domestic oil and gas sector and seeking to ensure that the UN climate talks achieve as little as possible and as slowly as possible,” it notes. .
"It is not difficult to understand Saudi Arabia's motivation: half of its GDP and 70% of its export revenues come from oil and gas," the report says. "Despite rising temperatures in Saudi Arabia and falling groundwater supplies, Riyadh has shown few signs of changing strategy."
The report also notes: “Riyadh is largely responsible for the absence of any agreed voting rules [at police meetings]. In the early 1990s, when decision-making rules were being formulated, Saudi Arabia, along with OPEC allies, refused to accept any majority voting rule, as would be the norm in OPEC bodies. UN”. That means that all countries effectively have a veto, unless they confront each other.
Saudi Arabia, a fierce opponent of an exit from fossil fuels, dominates the Arab bloc in climate negotiations. Oman's Energy Minister Salim Al-Aufi on Monday echoed those comments from Abdulaziz bin Salman.
However, within the group of Arab countries there are divergent interests, particularly in relation to the host country, the United Arab Emirates.
"We need to find consensus and common ground on fossil fuels, including coal," COP28 President Salma al Yaber said on Sunday. “We must also reach an agreement with the sources of financing and support” for adaptation and a just transition, he indicated.
Despite pushing for stronger language on fossil fuels, Al Yaber refused to name specific oil-producing nations that are holding back climate action.
The United Arab Emirates and Arabia are brother countries but that does not avoid the differences between them.
"We are seeing a divergence between the United Arab Emirates and other large oil states on the future of fossil fuels," underlines Jim Krane, of the Baker Institute at the University of Houston, in the United States.
While Riyadh, the world's largest oil exporter, refuses to mention fossil fuels in the UN-sponsored text, the Emirati president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, has reiterated that he expects a historic agreement, suggesting that the decision would affect the intended of coal, oil and gas.
Among the 22 Arab countries, Riyadh can count on the unconditional support of the six members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which were required by its secretary general, Haitham Al-Ghais, to mobilize to oppose the abandonment of the fossil fuels.
All of these states, as well as Qatar, a major gas producer, depend on hydrocarbons to finance their economies and development projects, explains Laury Haytayan, director for the Middle East and North Africa region of the Natural Resources Governance Institute. based in Brussels.
Riyadh has launched a reform program to transform the kingdom into a business and tourism hub. “To achieve its vision for 2030, it needs oil money,” adds this specialist.
For the Saudis, “even though they live in one of the hottest regions on the planet, saving oil is more important than saving the climate,” adds Jim Krane.
In contrast, the United Arab Emirates, despite the significant investments planned in the sector, feel "more comfortable with the gradual abandonment of fossil fuels, because its economy is much more diversified than that of most members of the OPEC," he explains. The small Gulf country thinks above all "of the prestige that comes from hosting a successful COP."
According to a source close to the negotiations, who requested anonymity, Abu Dhabi has until now remained outside the discussions within the Arab bloc, historically always dominated by Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, in Arab countries that do not have oil in the Middle East or in the Maghreb, their historical alignment with Saudi Arabia clashes with their environmental, agricultural and health interests, the NGOs point out.
In fact, the region is one of the most affected in the world by rising temperatures.
“This year we have identified the effects of climate change in the oases of Morocco, in the agriculture of Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and even in the cedar forests of Lebanon,” underlines Greenpeace director for the Middle East and North Africa Ghiwa Nakat. .
Even in Saudi Arabia, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, which every Muslim must make at least once in their life, "will become very difficult if temperatures rise by 2 degrees."
But the kingdom of the Saudi royal family is also the largest economy in the Arab world and a major financier of non-oil countries, including Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon.
At COP28, among the delegations of these countries, there are fervent defenders of climate stability.
