When the Russian opponent Alexei Navalny was found dead in a penal colony in the Arctic, all the heavyweights of Italian politics rushed to condemn Vladimir Putin. Minus one. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, one of three parties in Italy's right-wing coalition, once again sparked controversy over his pro-Russian comments.
“I can hardly find out what is happening in Italy, how can I judge what is happening in the other part of the world?” he declared on the radio. “I understand the position of Navalni's wife, clarity is needed. But it is done by the doctors, the judges, not us,” she added.
The far-right's words provoked enormous criticism in the country. During the tribute to the Russian opponent before the Rome City Hall, the League delegation was booed for the League's known sympathy towards the Putin regime, with whose party it signed a cooperation agreement in 2017. This contrasts greatly with the determined support for Ukraine from the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who last Saturday wanted to open the Italian presidency of the G-7 from Kyiv to be at the side of Volodymyr Zelensky when two years had passed since the Russian invasion.
Salvini's position on Navalni's death is not the only factor that has strained the Italian Government. The leader of the League has been radicalizing his messages against immigrants, crime and Italy's relations with Brussels for some time. When farmers from all over Europe protested in front of the European Parliament headquarters, he did not hesitate to attack the EU's "pseudo-green" policies and pose next to the concertinas to denounce the treatment of the protesters, despite the fact that the agricultural sector has carried out a fight against the Executive that he himself represents. With a very discreet left-wing opposition, the league player has become a cross for Meloni.
Salvini is nervous because if five years ago he swept the European elections with 34% of the votes, now the polls barely give him 8% of voting intention, while support for the Brothers of Italy is at 28%. That is to say, a third of the League delegation in the European Parliament could have to pack their bags. Given this panorama, he wants to differentiate himself from the prime minister – who has shown her more moderate side since she took power – by trying to win over the most far-right vote, but it is not working for him. He continues to lose points in the polls and in the recent regional elections in Sardinia the League barely added 3.7% of the ballots.
“Salvini's problem is that he is running the same electoral campaign as 2019, anti-European and pro-Putin, without having understood that the world after 2020 has completely changed and the demands of the population are different,” explains demographic analyst Antonio Noto. . “In 2019, anti-European logic was valid. Now the Italians, after the pandemic and in the middle of the war in Ukraine, feel safer under the European umbrella and are against Russia, so Meloni gives them more peace of mind,” he adds.
Salvini's latest outing has been to reaffirm his support for the controversial General Roberto Vannaci, suspended for eleven months from his position in the Army for the publication of a self-published book in which he attacked immigrants, environmentalists, feminists and homosexuals. The vice premier, who is considering naming him head of the list in the community elections, came out in his defense again this week after learning of the punishment: “One investigation a day is ridiculous, how scary is the General? Long live freedom of thought and expression, long live the Armed Forces and the Police Forces,” he indicated.
According to the professor of Political Science at the Federico II University of Naples Marco Valbruzzi, this behavior responds to the fact that Salvini does not know any other way to conduct an electoral campaign. “He only knows how to use this language halfway between the Government and the opposition. Meloni has been able to moderate himself, but he is not capable. The European elections will be a real litmus test because if the League falls below the threshold of 10% of the votes or is overtaken by Forza Italia, then his leadership in the party could be questioned,” points out the political scientist.
There are already those who are starting to do it. Gianantonio Da Re, one of the League's MEPs, has warned that if the party does not manage to get more than 10% of the Salvini votes, he will have to resign. “A secretary responds in good times and bad,” he said. In the ranks of the party there is discontent with the possible candidacy of the general, especially in the large fiefdoms in the north of the country, alerted by the possible flight of their more traditional voters towards Brothers of Italy or Forza Italia.
There is the name that Salvini fears most of all: that of Luca Zaia, the powerful governor of the Veneto region, who could challenge him for the leadership of the party. Zaia, with a reputation as a good manager, prefers to stay home, but his term ends next year, and under current Italian rules he is not eligible for a third re-election. For this reason, among other reasons, Salvini is pressuring Meloni to modify the limit of consecutive terms for regional presidents or mayors from two to three. The campaign for the Europeans has not technically started, but Salvini has been risking everything for some time now.
