Russia holds presidential elections this weekend and Vladimir Putin aims to remain in power. The question is how and the death of the opponent Alexei Navalni in prison seems to send signals. Michel Eltchaninoff (Paris, 1969), editor-in-chief of the Parisian magazine Philosophie, professor and expert in Russian philosophy and history, whose grandparents were all Russian, has been dealing with it for years. He wrote his award-winning In Putin's Head after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since then he has been adding and continuing. And he insists: “Putin is an ideological patient.”
Could Navalni, in prison, be considered a threat?
Navalny, who lived and communicated on social networks, was a constant threat to the Kremlin. It is not that he could overthrow the regime in 2024, but he could call on his followers to demonstrate at the polling stations during the presidential elections, criticizing the government or, simply, embodying eternal hope for hundreds of thousands of Russians.
Did you expect his death just now?
No. I thought the authorities were going to kill him slowly, continuing his psychological or physical torture through sleep deprivation, isolation, attacks and even more poisoning. It is still not known how he died. The investigations may say so, but the truth is that the Russian power, which harassed, poisoned, imprisoned, tortured him, is responsible. The small consolation in his disappearance is that he died standing.
What message would Putin want to send with his death?
Putin has never explicitly cited reasons to justify the elimination of an opponent, but for years he has had very harsh words towards all those he considers traitors to Russia, that is, the democrats. State-controlled media have repeatedly portrayed Navalny as a secret agent of the West. And since Russia considers itself at war with the West, its elimination is fully justified by Putin's speech: in times of global conflict, we get rid of those we consider traitors.
In what sense is Navalny an example that is also launched to the West?
Joe Biden turned the Navalni case into a red line. Putin openly shows Ukraine's allies that he is ready to overcome all limits.
Could Navalny's death indicate that Putin is more nervous than he seems?
It is obvious that next weekend's presidential elections are important for Putin. Although he is sure of victory, he wants a strong turnout and fears too visible demonstrations by his opponents. The assassination of Navalny could be aimed at decapitating the opposition, terrorizing the democrats, sending a signal to all those who would dare to criticize the Kremlin.
After Prigozhin, leader of Wagner's mercenaries, dies, Navalni dies. Is there a relationship between both deaths?
Prigozhin's assassination, two months after Wagner's rebellion, was intended to demonstrate that no military or populist challenge is possible. Navalny's is going in the same direction, only worse, because he had the support of many democrats. Today there is reason to be very concerned about the fate of other imprisoned opposition figures, such as Vladimir Kará-Murzá and Ilyá Yashin.
You have maintained for years that Putin is "ideologically sick." Is he worse today?
Putin has been building a paranoid and anti-Western discourse for years. In 2012-2013, after a not-so-obvious reelection, he developed, brick by brick, a completely closed worldview according to which the West wanted to destroy and dismantle Russia and turn it into a zone of dependency and civil wars. By repeating his phrases he gave rise to a parallel reality, presented every afternoon on television news.
What is its basis?
Putin talks about the decadence of Westerners, about their forgetfulness of “traditional values”, about the secular hostility of Americans, about the image of a Ukraine ruled by neo-Nazis (delirious, since Zelensky was a Russian speaker, open to discussion with the Kremlin and of Jewish origin), or about the ability of the Russian people to recreate the Second World War. And since 2022 and the massive invasion of Ukraine, he has completely immersed himself in his war fantasy.
Is it in ordinary Russia?
From the first days of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin spoke on television about the heroism of the Russian soldiers who fell under the bullets of the new Ukrainian Nazis. He thus attempts to hypnotize his people, and succeeds in part, by resurrecting the mythical memory of the Soviet victory over Nazism. His ideological pathology is now total, like his war.
Putin was very critical of the Soviet era, but his authoritarianism rhymes with Sovietism. Can they be compared?
Putin, as soon as he came to power, built an ideology that mixes aspects of Tsarist Russia (orthodoxy, long personal reign, hatred of the revolution, moral traditionalism) and Soviet ones: the apology for the Second World War, the conquest of space, secret services, military and political power, the progressive rehabilitation of Stalinism... Their points in common are the exaltation of the empire and the war that, according to him, Westerners have "forgotten."
Was the present to be expected seeing your life trajectory?
As Putin is a homo sovieticus, worked for the KGB that repressed dissidents and has a certain nostalgia for Stalin's nationalist communism, the intensification of repression was predictable. The total lack of respect for human life is patent (hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers are sent to die on the Ukrainian front, their opponents are murdered) and censorship has become absolute, because now anyone can end up in prison for a comment on the networks.
Is it possible to imagine an alternative to Putin's Russia today?
After two years of total war against Ukraine, not only is opposition to the war repressed, but part of the Russian population is coming to terms with the situation. Contract soldiers sent to the front often come from the poorest areas of the country, receive a salary that exceeds what they could hope to earn in a lifetime, and if they die, their families will be safe from destitution. And since there are many men at the front, salaries in Russian factories are not bad. Propaganda also doesn't allow for too many questions.
A bit hungry.
Many of Navalny's supporters, tens of thousands, dared to pay tribute to him at the monuments to the victims of Soviet repression or at his grave in Moscow. Having no more hope, they dare to openly defy the authorities.
Do you think that the evolution of the war in Ukraine can change anything in Russia or Putin?
Putin has chosen to make war the center of his policy. He can no longer live without her. His country lives in a war economy. And during his recent speech before the Federal Assembly he said that the military will now represent the country's new “elite”, who were destined to take on more and more responsibilities. Russia's future is entirely focused on war.
And the military cannot pose a threat to Putin?
Wagner's rebellion last June demonstrated that a reversal of power was at least possible. In the case of Prigozhin, in a fascist sense. Therefore, there is nothing impossible in a dictatorship. Suddenly, everything can turn upside down.
Russia has included the Estonian Prime Minister on the wanted list, how serious is the threat?
Since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, Russia feels surrounded in the Baltic. That is why it looks for abscess points for possible future operations, for example if Donald Trump is elected and decides not to withdraw from the common Atlantic defense. There is the Baltic. There is Poland, which Putin presented as an old enemy in a recent interview. And there is even Germany, presented in the media as the heir to Nazism. This does not mean that Russia will attack them tomorrow, but their method is to create supporting points in their speeches in order to justify future actions.
Is that what he did with Ukraine?
Yes, presenting it at least since 2014 as a pseudo-state. Let us remember that very few European leaders (like Zelensky himself) believed in massive Russian aggression. Putin opens the field of hostility and shows that everything, even the worst, is possible.
And can you do it elsewhere?
It has been trying to gain influence in Georgia for a long time, where it has already occupied 20% of the territory since 2008. It can destabilize or attack Moldova from Transnistria whenever it wants. It threatens the continent with nuclear attacks if Western soldiers become openly involved in Ukraine. And, what's more, these days Russian television dramatizes the issue of the bridge that connects Crimea with Russia, which is a target of the Ukrainian army.
For all these reasons, cases such as the death a few weeks ago of a Russian exile in Spain could go further?
The Russian war against Europe is now being waged everywhere, through espionage and influence operations, assassinations, and acts of cyberwarfare. I fear it will get worse and spread.
The European elections in June are approaching, are they another objective of Putin?
He relies on populist forces in Europe – like the National Rally in France, for example – to see a pro-Putin Europe emerge.
