The dream of the Colombian left of achieving power for the first time was put on hold on Sunday. As expected, the former guerrilla and former mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro, won the first round with the percentage predicted by the polls (40%). But his rival in the second round on June 19 will not be the right-wing Federico Gutiérrez – as the polls indicated – but the populist Rodolfo Hernández, with 28%, which makes Petro's victory uphill.
It is not clear who will win in three weeks, but what has become clear is that Colombians have voted for the change. It can now be assured that the next president of Colombia will not be from the Liberal Party or the Conservative Party –the two formations that monopolized Colombian politics during the 20th century–, nor will he be affiliated with Uribismo, the movement linked to former President Álvaro Uribe, which has influenced the country in the 21st century. These three tendencies supported Gutiérrez on Sunday.
Colombia has voted against the establishment, although the two finalists have been involved in politics for years. Especially Petro, a 62-year-old economist, who is now a senator and managed Bogotá between 2012 and 2015, in addition to being a deputy for many years or even accepting a diplomatic post in Europe during the government of Ernesto Samper, being threatened with death.
For his part, Hernández, a 77-year-old civil engineer and millionaire builder, was the independent mayor of Bucaramanga (2016-2019), capital of the department of Santander, but he is undoubtedly the outsider and the great surprise of these elections. He tacitly sells himself as a centrist and plays on ideological ambiguity with an anti-system, simpleton and demagogic discourse that attacks corrupt traditional politics. In fact, his party is ostentatiously called the League of Anti-Corruption Governors and his proposals exude welfare towards the lower classes, combined with commonplaces, such as caring for the environment, improving education or limiting the privatization of health .
With a confrontational attitude, Hernández has been immersed in numerous controversies throughout his life: he has been branded sexist and violent, both verbally and physically, such as when he hit an opposition councilor while he was mayor. In an interview in 2016 he stated: "I am an admirer of a great German thinker named Adolf Hitler." He later corrected himself and said that he was referring to Albert Einstein.
Anti-establishment, but to which of the two contenders did Gutiérrez, the establishment candidate, give his support? And in favor of whom are the Uribe, Liberal and Conservative leaders already positioning themselves? By Petro or by Hernández? Indeed, by Hernández, who has already been dubbed the Colombian Trump.
On Sunday night, after learning that he had been third with almost 24% of the votes, Gutiérrez did not wait a day to ask for the vote for Hernández. "I want to publicly express that we do not want to lose the country and that we are not going to put the future of Colombia, our families and our children at risk," said the conservative candidate. "We will vote for Rodolfo," added the former mayor of Medellín. "For everything he has said and what he has done, (Petro) is not convenient for Colombia," Gutierrez said. "It would be a danger to democracy, freedoms, the economy, families and our children," he insisted.
Despite the fact that he has turned towards the center-left, moderating his speech regarding 2018 – when he lost the second round against the current president, the Uribist Iván Duque – Petro represents a danger, but for the establishment, because he proposes to tax large fortunes, carry out an agrarian reform to put an end to landownership, stop oil exploitation to promote alternative energies, abolish compulsory military service or profoundly reform the Armed Forces and the National Police.
Petro celebrated his victory on Sunday with a bittersweet tone due to the unexpected difficulty of having to face the Colombian Trump. The progressive did not waste a second and began the campaign against Hernández from the stage. “Corruption is not fought with TikTok phrases,” Petro said, referring to his opponent, who has popularized his speech through this social network. “Do we want more violence? Do we want more corruption? My opponent is accused of corruption, ”Petro launched, referring to an open case against the anti-corruption champion for alleged irregularities in the award of a contract when he was mayor of Bucaramanga.
The leader of the Historical Pact, Petro's left-wing coalition, showed himself in his speech more moderate and conciliatory than ever, calling on voters from all sectors to get a million more supports in the second round –he got 8 .5 million votes on Sunday – and win the presidency. Petro said it represented a "true change, a change that allows us a much more prosperous new era, much more well-being." And he added, in another allusion to Hernández: "There are changes that are not changes, they are suicides."
Getting to the Casa de Nariño is complicated for Petro and, with no polls yet, analysts already predict a very tight result on June 19. For now, Petro must be content with the milestone of having led the left, for the first time, to be the most voted force in an election in Colombia, the only country in Latin America that has never had a progressive government.
