The conflict in Gaza enters its fifth month without Israel having managed to defeat Hamas or free the hostages. Several generals believe that it is no longer possible to achieve both objectives and public opinion believes that Prime Minister Beniamin Netanyahu should fall as soon as the war ends. The polls do not give him any chance of surviving at the polls, but the elections are not scheduled until October 2026.
As long as the war lasts, Netanyahu is safe, not only from an electoral defeat, but from an investigation into the security errors that allowed the massacre of October 7 and, even more important for him, from the judicial proceedings opened against him. for corruption and that they can take him to jail.
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas' proposal for a ceasefire because he believes that "there is no solution other than total victory." He also believes that “if Hamas survives in Gaza, it is a matter of time before it commits another massacre.”
The prime minister is convinced that “victory is within reach,” despite the fact that several generals believe otherwise. One of them is Gadi Eisenkot, now retired and a member of the war cabinet. He has lost his son fighting in Gaza and believes that “it is impossible to defeat Hamas.”
Netanyahu believes that the hostages can only be freed if Hamas is defeated, while Eisenkot and other senior officials believe that they will only be saved if there is a negotiation.
On October 7, Hamas kidnapped more than 240 people. About half have been released thanks to various agreements. At least 32 have died. Three were murdered by the Israeli army itself when they had escaped from their captors and were mistaken for terrorists even though they raised a white flag and called for help in Hebrew. Only one hostage has been rescued.
Israeli society experiences the misfortune of the hostages with great pain. The demonstrations in favor of his release mobilize tens of thousands of people. They believe that the protection of Jews is in Israel's DNA and that not doing everything possible to free the captives in Gaza is betraying this essence.
Hamas has proposed releasing them in exchange for 1,500 Palestinian prisoners, 500 of them sentenced to long prison terms. In addition, the terrorist group demands the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army. These are very difficult conditions to accept, not only for Netanyahu, but also for any other prime minister because they imply the survival of Hamas and, therefore, the threat against Israel persisting.
The Israeli government, however, could have responded with a counterproposal. If it has not done so, it is because it does not consider any alternative other than the military. The most ultra-nationalist wing, led by ministers Ben-Gavir and Smotrich, is in favor of fighting to the end, expelling its 2.3 million inhabitants from Gaza and repopulating the strip with Jewish settlements.
Netanyahu leads a coalition of seven parties. Together they make up 64 of the 120 seats in Parliament. Likud is the largest. It has 32 deputies. Without the support of the 13 of Ben-Gavir and Smotrich, he could not govern.
A motion of censure will only succeed with five Likud turncoat deputies. The most prominent members of the party who could lead an internal rebellion, such as Yoav Gallant, current Minister of Defense, Nir Barkat, former mayor of Jerusalem, or Yuli Edelstein, former president of Parliament, do not want to take the step if they do not lead. Even in times of war, Israeli politics remains extremely competitive. None of the three wants to facilitate the rise to power of anyone other than themselves.
Netanyahu moves very well in this swamp of quarrels and divisions. He knows how to make his rivals fight each other like no one else. He may survive an internal struggle, but not an election.
The latest polls by the newspaper Maariv and Channel 12 television give a clear winner to Benny Gantz, today in the war cabinet. The majority also believes that he is a much more suitable person than Netanyahu to lead the Government. The Likud would lose almost half of the seats, while National Unity, Gantz's party, would go from 12 to at least 35. The opposition could form a government with 71 seats.
Netanyahu understands that he has no political future and that his only way to keep his legacy alive is by defeating Hamas and preventing a Palestinian state. History will judge him harshly if he, at least, does not eliminate the terrorist threat.
The war, therefore, is a personal necessity and he has already said that it could easily last until next year. The population of Gaza will continue to suffer, but Israeli society will also suffer, not only because of the fate of the hostages and the soldiers, but also because of the strong social, political and religious divisions, fractures that come from afar and that the war has opened in channel.
