Author of the book that inspired Tropa de Elite , the blockbuster film about the police war in the favelas in Rio (José Padilha, Wagner Moura, 2007) Luiz Eduardo Soares has advised various administrations in the area of security. Anthropologist and political analyst, visiting professor at Harvard and Columbia universities, Soares – born in the state of Rio de Janeiro in 1954 – analyzes in his latest books the history of racism and inequality in Brazil and the phenomenon of Bolsonarism.
Do you think Bolsonaro will try to destabilize the transition after losing the elections?
It is difficult to know what Bolsonaro will do, because he does not respond to the principles of rationality. He is a man who has defended the need for a civil war, to kill 30,000 people to liberate Brazil from the left. I would say that some theater act is going to organize for Lula to take office in January with part of his legitimacy already diminished. Difficult days may be on the horizon. But the Brazilian elites are not interested in chaos.
And the military?
Some military personnel participated in the report Project Nation: Brazil 2035, which outlines a terrifying proposal for the destruction of democracy. And it was spread by the generals only three or four months ago… That said, I'm calm. Because the institution of the armed forces understands that it must ensure its own survival. The international environment, especially US support for Lula's victory, will discourage any coup adventure. With Trump in the White House it would have been different.
Isn't Lula's pact with the establishment – as necessary as it may be to protect democracy – going to tie his hands in government?
Effectively. He will have little margin before a strongly right-wing Congress. And his own allies are neoliberals, an establishment that in the end ended up leaning towards Lula.
Why did the Brazilian elite end up leaning towards Lula?
Because Bolsonaro is crazy. He makes calculations according to a rationality based exclusively on his personal project of power. And this project is the devastation of the institutions built on democracy, the destruction of the 1988 Constitution and the creation of an increasingly authoritarian power with a great capacity to mobilize the fascist-inspired bases. He was still in the presidency as the anti-system. And I think that the elites, after supporting him at the beginning because he promised to deepen neoliberalism, in the end they wanted to end all this. And the only alternative has been Lula.
But Bolsonaro did win the support of the establishment in 2018.
Yes. At first, he was supported by big business and some of the big media. The explanation is that the advances under the governments of Lula and Dilma in areas such as social justice, inequality or racism, generated fear in certain wealthy sectors of society. And the war against Lula was declared coordinated by the big media and the prosecutors of the Lava Jato case – anti-corruption investigation – who managed to create a general perception that Lula was corrupt. This created a space for the extreme right that was widening. In the end, liberals and moderate democratic conservatives completely lost the ability to dialogue with popular sentiment.
What replaced the center?
A scenario emerged featuring exclusively Lula and Bolsonaro. In the popular imagination, the figure of Lula persisted because of what she did in her government. In front of him was Bolsonaro, whose base was built on the hyperpoliticization of the inflamed neo-Pentecostal discourse on evil and the devil. The idea of evil as a presence in the world that must be exorcised. There was a moralization of politics and this opened the way for the expansion of the neoliberal ideology of the minimal state. In the name of the fight against corruption.
The role of evangelism in this process gives a lot to think about...
It is ironic because neo-Pentecostalism, entities like the Universal Church, are based on the theology of prosperity, and their growth had a lot to do with the social and economic achievements of Lula and Dilma between 2003 and 2014.
What did Bolsonaro do to lose the support of the elites?
It was burning the ships with an absolutely irresponsible management of the pandemic. He has emptied the institutions from the inside as Viktor Orbán did in Hungary and has been changing the rules of the game. And elements of the old Brazilian fascism, the integralism of the 1930s, were incorporated into Bolsonarism. He was always present, but he never found a leader who represented those values. Until Bolsonaro arrived and an idea was imposed on society that politics itself is corruption. The elites began to turn their backs on Bolsonaro because they saw that a second term could be a threat to themselves. He created a huge unpredictability. He didn't know what he would be capable of after what he did. The elites, for their own interest, perceived that Lula would be a moderate popular leadership. And that gave rise to the broad front.
What space will there be for Lula to implement an agenda for change?
There is a minimalist and a maximalist answer. The minimalist is that Lula will limit himself to restoring democracy. Even if that is all, he will have rendered a historic service to Brazil. He would save the Amazon and the indigenous people. She would protect the women. There would be a different political environment with an institutional restoration. And this would pave the way for a new beginning.
And the maximalist?
Lula has a lot of experience and a lot of political skill. Perhaps with heavy investment she can drastically reduce hunger and unemployment. The increase in the minimum wage above inflation can be a mechanism for economic stimulus. And in a year, she could convince her center allies that it would be worth starting an investment project to combat poverty. He will not be a candidate for re-election. Perhaps a space can be opened for Lula to go further.
