Javier Solana (Madrid, 1942) confronts the world of recent decades, from the fall of the Wall to the war in Ukraine, in Witness to an Uncertain Time, with which he has won the Espasa award. A book in which geopolitics and memories are one thing for the man who was secretary general of NATO and responsible for European foreign policy for a decade.
His book covers until the beginning of this month and despite that he has left out a new crisis, that of Gaza. Is the story accelerated?
We are in a complicated moment. Our most important concern was the war in Ukraine and now it has flared up very violently in the Middle East again. And not only is it a return to tension between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but there are beginning to be movements in the region. If it gets messed up, we would have a serious situation. First, because of human suffering, and also the price of oil would evolve. For now it hasn't moved. An Israeli war with Hamas is poor and has no impact on the stock market. In fact, in Gaza it is a horror how the citizens live. As for Israel, it is in a very complicated situation, Netanyahu is a bad ruler and has been allying himself with the worst of Israel, those who have the least democratic values. Before this catastrophe arrived there was already great unrest. When this is over I hope I have to leave politics.
how do you get out from here?
There has been a lack of leadership. The Oslo accords were a hope that was short-lived because Rabin was assassinated. By a Jew. There is a strong current in Israel that wants the country to go from the river to the sea. And that was said before the Hamas attack by members of the Israeli Government. What coexistence can you have when at this point in the 21st century your leaders continue to say that Israel goes from the river to the sea? I am very sad, but we will have to move forward, stopping the behavior that Israel is having. Biden has told them not to make the mistake they made after 9/11, when they became upset and went to war.
Is the solution two states?
I don't have the slightest doubt. And letting your guard down on that would be a betrayal. Trump there had a bad political action on the Middle East with the Abraham Accords for Arab countries to recognize Israel. He got it with Morocco, Emirates. It's a betrayal. The great agreement is peace and two States by recognition.
Much of his book covers a unipolar world, in which the US was the only power. Did you waste the moment?
After the fall of the Wall, Bush Sr. managed German reunification, the invasion of Kuwait very well... There were people who told him that Saddam had to be destroyed, and he said no. But those who wanted that, after 9/11, pushed again. 9/11 broke a possibility when a rapprochement between a Putin and a Bush who had been presidents for a short time was believed to be possible. 9/11 kills everything. The US is a country at war with war liturgies and speeches. There were very radical changes in the nuclear agreements to be able to do anti-missile defense, which put the Russians in a bad mood. From that year we have a coalition that did things that it should not have done, the Iraq war was nonsense, and the only thing that went well was in September, when it was decided that China would enter the World Trade Organization, which allows it leap.
Was Europe wrong with Putin believing that economic interdependence was enough?
I have always been an advocate that interdependence helps peace. But for it to work, leaders have to be credible and Putin was not. He didn't play fair.
Speaking of economics, in the book he mentions Biden's new policy with the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act. Is it a turning point for globalization, are we going to a world with strong industrial policies?
Industrial policy is back. And as proposed, each country is going to do its thing, breaking the international framework that we had achieved. With the IRA, the subsidies that the US is going to give so that everything is done in the US put the EU in enormous difficulties. What was previously played on the global market is now subsidized by the State. And Europe does not have a State to subsidize. It is a decision that will make us Europeans think a lot about our behavior.
He says that the greatest challenge of the century will be the rivalry between China and the United States and recalls Thucydides' trap: many times the struggle between the emerging power and the established one leads to war.
The most serious situation now is the state of the US. A completely divided country, they are only united by hatred or fear of China. But I think there is no reason for a break, a decoupling between the economies of the West and China. It can be avoided. There will be difficulties in issues that have to do with security. Artificial intelligence, chips, which are used for cleaning robots and drones. Control of dual-use technology. But trade between the US and China continues to rise. A war is stupid: no one can win it.
