Why has the CIS been less wrong than other demoscopic experts?
Because there is no data kitchen here: there is a method...
You will say.
To begin with, we take into account that one in four Spaniards decides their vote in the last week of the campaign...
That week in which Sánchez overcame the bad result that others were already predicting?
And 8% decide their vote on election day. That is why there is more lack of method than ever, because with such volatility in voting intention, how can we approach the result? The last days of the campaign are increasingly decisive.
Does digitalization make us volatile?
Increasingly: less than a quarter of voters always vote for the same party and the rest change their vote between several.
Is the voter increasingly mutable?
And the percentage and relevance of tactical voting increases: more and more voters do not vote for the party they prefer, but for the one they calculate will be most effective in achieving the result, the coalition or parliamentary balance that interests them most. The traditional electorates loyal to a party and ideas are disappearing and that makes it even more difficult to get close to the results.
How to make fewer mistakes?
Paying more attention to the data than to their cuisine, we were the only ones who anticipated that in Catalonia the PSC would have the most votes. And we only deviate from the final result of the PSOE by 0.5%; and of what the PP achieved, 1.5%.
Before we said that whoever won the center won the elections.
Spain is center-left, although, from 2018 to 2023, Spaniards who consider themselves right-wing have increased from 20.3% to 32.6%. Also, but less, those who call themselves left-wing: from 62.2% % to 62.6%. At the same time, the vote at the extremes has been growing...
Which end grows the most?
The extreme left, 10% today, increases more than the extreme right, 5%. Young people who feel excluded vote for the radical left and on the extreme right what is resurfacing is sociological Francoism.
And in Catalonia?
Among Catalans the sociological tendency towards the center also persists. For this reason, when he became radicalized, Puigdemont was left without a horizon, in a terminal state. By losing the centrism of Pujol's great party, he has fallen to only seven deputies.
And thus, falling off the precipice, did the Virgin of the Investiture appear to him?
But now Junts has the opportunity to integrate again and participate in the construction of Catalonia and Europe,
Will the voter see Sánchez making a virtue of necessity or just contortionism?
Sánchez makes necessity a virtue and virtue, necessity. And he is heard in Europe.
How can we make palatable what so many consider to be the tragedy of amnesty?
It is time for the great pacts that Spanish society is asking for, and these great historical pacts are built with renunciations.
Would voting for Sánchez also mean voting for Puigdemont in some way?
The Spanish see it necessary to understand each other as if they were a family. It is decided between everyone, not with fists on the table and impositions.
Why did so many demographers overestimate the vote that Sumar would obtain?
Because in recent days there has been a lot of tactical movement among his electorate, but it has not increased.
More noise than nothing for Yolanda?
What worries me is a rightwardization of Spanish democracy, like what has already occurred with Trump or now in Argentina.
Because right now?
Because the plutocracy knows the power of polls to create states of opinion, and buys polling companies to generate a “Vincent effect” in its favor...
...Go where the people go? Gregariousness?
Create states of opinion, because whoever creates the environment wins, publishing biased surveys that make people believe that the right has more voting intentions than they do.
And does Spanish public opinion now expect a great pact or a temporary one?
We have suffered pandemics, droughts and global warming: we are in a vortex situation and the Spanish demand state pacts and great consensuses that provide them with security and predictable well-being. And we look at Europe and the great countries that have known how to solve their great challenges...
Like Germany?
For example.
There is talk of being inspired by its territorial organization to improve the Spanish one.
There are those who, on the other hand, only use the Senate to crush the one who governs. And that gives a feeling of futility in public opinion, because Spain is a complex and diverse country. And recognizing it and managing it efficiently is what the Spanish ask for.
