With a realistic negotiation or acceptance in which the pro-Russian Ukrainians keep the territory occupied by the Russians in exchange for peace in Europe. Not because this is my wish, but because it is what the data says.
As long as Putin controls Russia and maintains his territorial ambition, a military defeat for Russia does not seem likely. The admirable Ukrainian resistance managed to avoid the occupation of Kyiv and Kharkiv thanks to logistical support from NATO. But the asymmetry is such that the difference in motivation is not enough to tip the balance. There will be offensives and counter-offensives with an enormous human cost. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south went little beyond a first line of defense, with heavy losses, and bogged down afterwards. The Russians also suffered losses, but Putin doesn't care. He just added 130,000 soldiers. That they will not go to the front but will take on other tasks, freeing up troops for combat.
Russia is not isolated. Not only governments that make up the majority of the world's population do not apply sanctions, but the most important ones cooperate in military maneuvers. In Vostok 2022, the maneuvers that are being carried out these days in the Sea of Japan, Russian, Chinese and Indian troops, and observers from other countries, including Algeria, participate. And energy markets in most of the world remain open to Russian exports and benefit from Europe's partial embargo. The price increases caused by the Western boycott explain why Russia receives twice as much income as before the war. There is substantial damage to the Russian economy, in financial markets and in high-tech imports.
But in war, the question is who bears the economic cost more. For now, the big loser is Europe, both in the price we pay for energy and in inflation and the resulting social crisis. And if Russia plays Russian roulette by sporadically cutting off energy supplies, it could cause division in European public opinion. The majority of Germans and Italians are not willing to be cold in Ukraine and ask for it to end. We have not yet made the energy transition that would make us independent. The United States is doing well, because they are self-sufficient and they love a Europe dependent on its energy lifeline.
There are other more sinister scenarios. As initiatives of the hawks of Eastern Europe that lead to an escalation of war and the extension of the war in Europe. Or what the Western intelligence services want: opposition from the Russian oligarchy to Putin, encouraging a coup. But Putin is trained in the classic KGB. And it would not be an exaggeration to associate the series of mysterious deaths of large energy companies in recent months with preventive measures.
Wars that cannot be won always end in negotiation or acceptance. The question is not how but when.
