Is it nice to spend a vacation with highs of 40 degrees and tropical nights? The question takes center stage as heat waves increase in frequency and intensity in Spain, where tourism accounts for more than 12% of GDP. The European Commission identified some tourist areas of the country as the most vulnerable to the impact of climate change last summer, and the first analyzes suggest that, indeed, high temperatures could affect this key industry for the economy.
This is indicated by a study by Caixabank Research that has analyzed card payment data at the entity's POS terminals to check whether there are changes in tourist spending related to high temperatures. The report highlights that the warmest areas of the country had the slowest growth in tourist spending between the high seasons of 2019 and 2023.
“There is a negative correlation between the growth of tourist spending and the average temperature in summer 2023,” says David César Heymann, economist and coordinator with Judit Montoriol of the Caixabank Tourism Sector Report. Thus, traveler spending grows more in the least warm municipalities of Spain. Specifically, it increases by 45% in locations that recorded temperatures below 17 degrees. On the other hand, in locations with average temperatures above 23 degrees, it increases by around 25%-35%.
The Mediterranean coast takes the worst part. It is in these municipalities where the analysis finds the greatest growth differential in tourist spending, of ten points. Heymann clarifies here that the differences are also partly explained by the “saturation” of certain coastal destinations with high temperatures, with less potential to have grown between 2019 and 2023.
Even so, it insists on the better performance of coastal and urban tourism in the least warm municipalities. This highlights, Caixabank Research highlights, the attractiveness that these types of destinations are gaining in a context in which temperatures are increasing. According to Aemet, 2023 was the third warmest summer in Spain since records began (1961 ). Of the ten warmest summers in the historical series, nine belong to the 21st century.
The heat also affects the distribution of spending by sectors. In the same municipality, heat waves are associated with lower tourist spending in the main discretionary consumption sectors of visitors, with a drop of 0.16% in spending in restaurants for each degree above the historical average of the day. , and a drop of 0.34% in leisure. Supermarkets do not benefit from the drop in restaurant spending and also fell 0.13%. The only sector analyzed that benefits from heat waves are pharmacies, which bill 0.06% more for each degree above the historical average. “It is crucial that the tourism sector innovates and invests in adaptation strategies,” the researchers conclude.
