Neo-fascism grows in Germany under the umbrella of the AfD, today the second force in voting intentions. Polls give it 21%, only behind the CDU, with 26%.
Growth has been constant since May and has left the Social Democratic Party, winner of the last elections, and its government partners, the Greens and Liberals, far behind.
In this atmosphere of euphoria, the AfD held a congress yesterday in Magdeburg to approve the program for the European elections next spring. The radical right party considers that "the EU has completely failed" in all areas, especially in combating the climate crisis and immigration.
It does not ask for its dissolution, as it did in June and many of its leaders defend, but for its refoundation. He wants it to be a "federation of European nations." National sovereignty must always be above the general interests of Europe. The main objective of the new EU should be to combat illegal immigration and acquire strategic autonomy to assume security without depending on the United States.
The AfD grows driven by the uncertainty that weighs on the economy. The IMF advanced a couple of weeks ago that it does not expect a recovery before 2024 or 2025.
Germany overcame a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, but doubts remain. It is not clear that the industry can recover from the shock of giving up Russian gas. The cost of energy has skyrocketed. The profits of the big companies have suffered.
BASF lost 130 million euros last year in Germany. This giant, born in 1865, the mainstay of the German miracle, closed several factories in his country last year. Some 2,600 people lost their jobs. Now it will invest 10,000 million euros in a new production plant in China.
Energy costs, coupled with a shortage of skilled labor at a competitive price, favor de-industrialization. Miele manufactures in Poland, Porsche in Slovakia, Audi and BMW in Hungary.
These and other industrial companies lose orders. This is bad news, especially since 27% of the German economy depends on manufacturing.
Unemployment is very low, but it is growing, while foreign investment is at 2013 levels. It has been falling non-stop for five years.
German industry is basically from the 19th century: chemicals, engineering, automotive and construction. There is no prospect of diversification in the short or medium term. Germany is a long way off, as is Europe, from the advances in artificial intelligence led by the United States and China.
The concern that this trend arouses in the most vulnerable sectors of the German economy encourages the AfD. The party reached 12.6% of the votes in the 2017 elections and dropped to 10.3% in those of 2021. In just two years it has doubled this percentage. There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine and the fight with Russia, which implies giving up Russian gas, a cheap fuel on which a large part of the industry was based, are the causes of the economic difficulties.
The ultranationalist ideology and the anti-European and protectionist agenda of the AfD are consolidated in the states of the former Democratic Republic. The 1991 reunification did not help them catch up with the rest of the country. Thuringia, Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anthalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are not as rich as the western states. All of them will hold elections next year and the AfD is aiming for several victories.
It remains to be seen, however, if the triumphs that the polls anticipate will serve him to govern. The Christian Democrats confirm that they will never agree with the AfD. Its leader, Fiedrich Merz, opened up a few days ago to specific pacts in minor institutions. This change of position was very poorly received, also within his own party, and he had to rectify it. The AfD's association with the Nazi past is all too obvious.
