The greatest advances in European construction have often occurred in parallel with great tensions, destructive movements or, directly, shootings on the continent. 2024 will not be an exception. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 marked the birth of a new era in the European Union. The force of geopolitics gave a once unthinkable boost to a series of decisions, such as the invitation to Kyiv to join the club, which will continue to unfold in the months and years to come, with a war at the club's doors and another in Gaza that has exposed Europe to accusations of double standards in the Global South, while far-right, nationalist and pro-Russian forces are advancing positions and intend to make a splash in the European elections in June.
“Today, Viktor Orbán is the Trojan horse that breaks European unity” to “protect not the national interest of Hungary but that of Russia,” said the Czech Foreign Minister, Martin Dvořák, after the last European Council, when The Hungarian leader agreed to leave the room so as not to stop the decision to give the green light to the accession negotiations with Ukraine, but he did block the reform of the European budget that would allow the approval of 50 billion euros in aid to Kyiv, to guarantee it four years of financial stability.
This is not the first time that Orbán has blocked EU decisions alone, nor is it new that in the end he swallows his words while presenting himself as a patriot to his voters. But the depth of this pulse, although it has highlighted his loneliness, leaves a very bad taste in the mouth. Now that Donald Tusk governs Poland and Orbán has been left without a powerful ally to stop decisions against his country due to the deterioration of the rule of law, pressure increases to advance the file he has open due to these shortcomings, which could leave him without right to vote. “I hope that in the coming months Orbán will behave like a European,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.
The Twenty-Seven have met on February 1 for an extraordinary summit in which the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, will try to get Orbán to accept the budget agreement that is on the table and that all the other countries support. This time, the Hungarian leader has made it clear what he wants in exchange for lifting his veto: a “solution” for the 20 billion euros in aid that his country has frozen because he has not made the necessary judicial reforms. Such decisions are subject to very clear rules and it will be difficult for the European Commission, which has already been widely criticized for authorizing a payment of 10 billion in regional funds after the approval of several laws, to give satisfaction if Budapest does not move.
Another key moment that will test European unity will be the unanimous approval of the negotiating mandate for accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova in March. Ukraine will not enter the EU while it is at war, and it is expected that the accession talks will last years, even decades. But once the European perspective of this country has been confirmed, a risky bet that is defended with the argument that it is “an investment in peace, security and prosperity” for the entire continent, the discussion on the reforms that the EU must make before receiving new members, in view of its next refoundation, has become more urgent. “There can be no enlargement without reforming the EU institutions,” said the Belgian Foreign Minister, Hadja Lahbib, whose country will take over from Spain in the rotating presidency of the Council on January 1.
In March legislative activity will stop and the entire Union will go into campaign. Between June 6 and 9, elections to the European Parliament are held and 400 million Europeans are called to the polls. All the polls point to new advances by far-right and ultranationalist forces that are committed to recovering powers for nation states and a less intrusive EU, parties to which the unexpected victory of Geert Wilders in November in the Netherlands has given strength.
Wilders is in talks with three other parties to form a government and it is possible that in mid-2024 he will sit in the European Council as prime minister. If he arrives, it will be after signing a coalition agreement that will force him to leave behind his most radical ideas on immigration (total stop), religious freedom (closing of mosques) and Europe (the call for a referendum on the EU) but The image will undoubtedly be a powerful message for the extreme right.
The result of the European elections will influence the renewal of the leadership of several international institutions, a process full of questions. Will Ursula von der Leyen continue to lead the Commission? Will the Dutchman Mark Rutte take over from Jens Stoltenberg in NATO, or will there be a last-minute change with the German? What figure will represent social democracy after the resignation of António Costa, marred by a corruption case? Will we have to count on the ultraconservatives in these decisions?
Another question on the horizon is the outcome of the United States presidential elections. Donald Trump could be re-elected and in Brussels the conviction prevails that Vladimir Putin is waiting to know the result to decide on Ukraine. In recent months, Western arms shipments to Kyiv have slowed, but are holding up. A political turnaround in Washington, however, would change everything. Europe could not compensate for the end of American military support. Given the uncertain prospects on the battlefield and NATO's evasion of Ukraine's accession, the EU is going to focus on what is in its power, offering a future perspective to Kyiv.
The force of geopolitics
