It is summer and, after two years of the pandemic, the most immediate concerns of the millions of Europeans who are starting their holidays these days are either airport chaos or the price of gasoline if they plan to travel by car. Brussels and other European capitals, however, have their sights set on what will come next, on the possibility of a winter without Russian gas that will force supply rationing and put the already faltering European economy on the brink of recession.
"We must prepare for more gas supply disruptions, including a complete cut off from Russia," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned this week. "It is obvious that President Vladimir Putin continues to use energy as a weapon," he emphasized in the European Parliament, where he confirmed that on July 20 he will present a European contingency plan with measures to deal with possible cuts in supply and be clear what are the priorities in case of shortage.
Von der Leyen cannot be accused of alarmism. The Russian president has already totally or partially closed the tap to a dozen European countries and fears are spreading that the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which tomorrow will be closed for 10 days to carry out theoretically routine maintenance work, will not resume its activity on July 21. Although Russian gas imports to the European Union have gone from representing 40% of the total to 20% in June this year, such an eventuality would deprive it of one of its main sources of supply at a key moment.
European gas companies are ordered to fill their reserves to 80% before winter and normally take advantage of the summer, when there is less demand and prices are lower, to prepare this cushion, necessary to meet the demand for heating and energy with guarantees during winter. They are currently at 60% and, if the required level is not reached, specialists do not rule out preventive rationing.
The Gazprom-run Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which directly feeds Germany, is already running below capacity on the grounds that it cannot operate without a turbine that was sent to Canada for repair and is affected by Western sanctions. against Moscow. Kyiv has turned to Ottawa to ask that the piece not be delivered. Berlin asks him otherwise.
With prices at record highs, Brussels calls Russian maneuvers with energy “blackmail”. The explanation of the technical problems put forward by Moscow sounds like a mere pretext to try to divide the Western front and launch an economic war against Europe. Although analysts believe it is unlikely that Russia will completely turn off the tap, due to the impact it would have on its own finances, a cut in supply could push Germany and Italy into recession and, on the rebound, the whole of the euro zone, according to Goldman Sachs analysis.
The Ministers of Economy of the Twenty-seven will hold an extraordinary meeting on July 26 to assess the situation and decide on the contingency plan presented days before by the European Commission, which will include measures to reduce global consumption, rationing plans and ensure transit of gas between countries. “We have to ensure that, in the event of a total disruption, the gas flows to where it is most needed. We must have European solidarity and protect the single market and the value chains of the industry," said Von der Leyen, who called for not falling into "the selfishness and protectionism" that was seen at the beginning of the pandemic.
Brussels has asked member states to send it their national emergency plans. Based on these documents, it will determine the degree of preparation at a European level and design common guidelines on how to act.
Households and essential infrastructure such as hospitals or schools would have priority in the event of supply rationing, followed by industry, where a delicate conversation is now opening with the different sectors to decide which ones could more easily weather a cut. The Commission is listening to the affected sectors, starting with the energy-intensive industries, to prepare its proposal.
European legislation requires member states to show solidarity with each other in the event of a shortage, but they have only signed six bilateral agreements to regulate crises of this type, including those between Germany and Austria and Denmark or the Baltics with each other. "This is not enough," stressed the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, at the last council of European ministers in the industry, in which she encouraged them to update their contingency plans and diversify their suppliers.
“Eastern European countries are highly exposed to Russian gas cuts, especially the Nord Stream 1 route, Germany and Austria included. Solidarity agreements are essential so that the European market does not break up during the winter. By working together, the cost of reducing its use will be lower for Europe," says Ben McWilliams, one of the authors of the study published this week by the Bruegel research center, which calculates that if Russia turns off the gas tap, the EU will have to reduce a 15% your consumption compared to the pre-war level or more, in case of a particularly cold winter.
Not all countries will suffer in the same way: the reduction in spending should be 54% in the case of the Baltic countries and Finland, and 29% in Germany. France, due to its dependence on nuclear energy, and Spain and Portugal, due to their situation as energy islands with little interconnection with the rest of the continent and dependent on other suppliers, are the countries that will feel the least directly. However, it will take everyone's efforts, says McWilliams.
“A European efficiency plan should require solidarity and a reduction in consumption greater than necessary at the national level. It should not be seen as charity, it is European solidarity”, emphasizes the Bruegel analyst. "In the long term, a European approach is what will allow us to achieve independence from Russian gas and achieve climate goals."
Politicians, adds Mc Williams, “must clearly explain to people the risks that are coming and ask households to do everything they can to reduce the demand for gas, being sensible with their energy consumption. Every cubic meter of gas that households save is one more that can be used by the industry and therefore helps to protect the European economy in the coming months”.
