A minimum of 50% participation and 55% support for yes to independence. These are the conditions for an agreed referendum to be validated and for the secession that ERC includes in the political paper that it has finalized and that will be approved at the end of January to be effective. Despite the fact that the independence movement has constantly and almost exclusively set itself on the Scottish path in terms of percentages, the new proposal is based on the formula by which Montenegro separated from Serbia in 2006 and which was recognized by both governments and European institutions. A victory for independence supporters would trigger a "good faith" negotiation process between the Spanish and Catalan executives for the transition to a Catalan republic.
Esquerra's position differs, for example, from the one he adopted for 1-O when he was part of Junts pel Sí together with Convergència. With article 4.4 of the law of that unilateral referendum, it was enough for the yes to obtain a single vote of more than no to proclaim independence. Nor was a minimum participation contemplated. For that referendum, according to data from the Generalitat, 43% of those registered went to the polls.
Esquerra has allowed the demand for an independence referendum to become dormant in recent months to focus on taking the political conflict out of court. With the reform of the Criminal Code, the Republicans consider that steps have been taken towards the second axis: amnesty. But once the changes provided for in the text are resolved -mainly in the crimes of sedition and embezzlement- and without abandoning this objective, the Republicans will resume the first of the axes. He will put pressure on Pedro Sánchez again.
They do so within the framework of the clarity agreement that the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, outlined in the general policy debate at the end of September. With it, the head of the Government intends that "the majority of 80%" in favor of the right to self-determination set the criteria for holding a hypothetical referendum, so that they can then be negotiated at the dialogue table between the Spanish and Catalan governments . In this context, ERC presents a starting proposal, a starting point, which assumes that it could be modified, if possible completely, after the debate that may take place with all the social, political and economic actors in favor of holding a consultation. of self determination.
Marta Vilalta, deputy general secretary of Esquerra, explained that despite the fact that "great progress" is being made with the elimination of the crime of sedition and the possible reform of embezzlement, "other issues remain in this area." "But it is evident that we must work on the other leg of the resolution of the political conflict, which is the exercise of the right to self-determination," she added. The also spokesperson for the Republicans has justified that the model to follow in terms of percentages is that of Montenegro because "it gives maximum legitimacy and the necessary plus of homologation necessary at a European and international level."
Those of Oriol Junqueras also make two other points: that the question be "clear, like the referendum on October 1, 2017" and that all residents of Catalonia over the age of 16 and all non-residents who have right to vote in the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia. In the latter case, Esquerra has focused on the Scottish vote in 2014.
Entitled "The democratic path of the referendum", the political paper that the ERC is about to approve is part of the congressional process that the party began weeks ago and through which Oriol Junqueras and Marta Rovira renewed their positions as president and general secretary in November, respectively. According to Marta Vilalta, with the new document Esquerra "adapts to the current political context."
The text has two large blocks: the steps for a referendum to materialize and the path to articulate “great majorities”. This last aspect goes through, according to the Republicans, "good government" in the meantime. Vilalta assures that the referendum is the “most effective way to win independence”, because it is “the maximum democratic representation of society”. Not surprisingly, 80% of those surveyed by the Center d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) in its spring 2022 survey, the latest survey, are in favor of a referendum. “We do not want to impose the Catalan republic on anyone; what we want is to be able to decide it ”, he affirmed.
