The current El Niño episode will last at least until April 2024, according to the forecast of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). During that time, it will continue to alter weather patterns and contribute to a new increase in temperatures, both on land and in the ocean, this organization anticipates.
That forecast is collected in the El Niño/La Niña Today bulletin, which combines predictions and assessments from experts around the world. Specialists reach this conclusion based on the patterns observed in previous episodes and current long-term predictions, when the episode is expected to gradually lose strength during the next spring in the northern hemisphere.
Your progress will be progressive. Since mid-October 2023, sea surface temperature and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators observed in the central-eastern zone of the tropical Pacific present values consistent with this new El Niño episode.
During the months of July and August, these parameters intensified rapidly and reached moderate magnitudes in September 2023.
In its final phase, the WMO warns that it will enter its peak, expected for the period between November 2023 and January 2024. "The probability that it will persist during the next northern hemisphere winter - and southern hemisphere summer - is 90%," they explain in their forecasts. And that episode will be intense, they maintain.
El Niño occurs with an average frequency of between two and seven years and its duration is usually between 9 and 12 months. According to the WMO, it is a climatic phenomenon of natural origin associated with the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific.
This new episode occurs in the context of a climate altered by human activity. "The effects of El Niño on global temperature usually manifest themselves the year following the onset of the episode, in this case in 2024. However, as a consequence of the unprecedented temperatures recorded on the land and sea surface since June, the year 2023 is on track to become the warmest on record," continues the WMO.
To date, the warmest year on record is 2016, due to the combined impact of climate change and an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The secretary general of the organization, Petteri Taalas, attributes it to climate change: "The increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity that capture heat in the atmosphere contribute clearly and unequivocally to this increase in temperatures" .
