Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Haley. The Iowa caucuses, which will begin the primary cycle next Monday, will mark the future of the Republican Party, with the permission of Donald Trump. What the governor of Florida and the former governor of South Carolina are at stake is second place, but whoever holds out in that race may have a lot to say at the Republican banquet.
If Haley takes second place in Iowa and wins New Hampshire, DeSantis can be expected to withdraw early from the race. Then the Nevada caucuses will arrive, where an overwhelming victory for Trump is predicted, and her litmus test will be in South Carolina, the state of which she was governor, where she currently has low popularity ratings. If she loses that battle, before the key date of Super Tuesday (March 5), she will clear the way for Trump, who will eat the entire cake at the Republican banquet. But everything remains to be seen.
Among the ashes of the Republican Party's disappointment in the midterm elections in November 2022, a flame of hope was fanned. While most of the candidates supported by Donald Trump lost their respective elections, missing the opportunity to recover the Senate, Ron DeSantis achieved his re-election as governor of Florida with an overwhelming victory, with 59.4% of the votes. It seemed like the beginning of the end of the Trumpist page. A year later, the balloon has been punctured and the governor is not even assured of second place in the presidential race.
His cover letter: four years of anti-abortion, anti-woke, anti-immigration, anti-China, anti-gay, anti-trans and pro-gun policies from his conservative cabinet in the southern state. His age, 45 years old, and his short political career, barely a decade long – six years in the House of Representatives and four as governor of Florida – distance him from the traditional profile of a presidential candidate. But what really limits his options is the inability to distance himself from Trump, his political father, and the absence of charisma and oratory, of which the former president has plenty.
He now faces the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, who arrives at the Iowa caucuses with options to finish second in the Republican Party. Reinforced by its good performances in the five debates held, by the financial influx of donors in the last quarter of last year and by the early withdrawal of Chris Christie from the electoral race, for the first time the polls gave him victory this Thursday against Ron DeSantis in the midwestern state, with 20% of voting intention, compared to 13% for the governor of Florida.
Haley has a very difficult time beating former President Donald Trump, in whose administration she served as US ambassador to the UN. But in the hypothetical case that he wins the Republican nomination for the White House, the polls do give him a chance of beating Joe Biden, the most unpopular president at this point since there have been polls and the oldest in history if he achieves the nomination. re-election in November.
